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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Franco Battista who wrote (8230)	12/12/1997 10:15:00 AM
From: Hank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Franco, Don't expect PFE to release any data concerning Viagra until it has received FDA approval. PFE has a policy of not publishing results until a drug is ready for market. They believe doing so may give their competitors an unnecesaary edge. VVUS is not going to meet it's end as quickly as ZONA will. That's for sure. However, I believe the big boys will slowly but surely take market share away from them over time. In addition to PFE, many other big players are looking to enter this field. I think MRK already has some prospects and I know that BMY is interested in starting their own ED program. I'm sure there are others too. The big drug companies vs the little guys like VVUS are kind of like the race between the tortoise and the hair. The little guy races out of the gate to get the initial lead but the tortoise eventually over takes them. In the end, VVUS's only hope for survival will be if they get taken over by one of the big guys. Otherwise, they will die a slow death as each of the big drug companies come out with their own ED drug. If VVUS continues to make money with it's drug, I think they will become a take over candidate. In the meantime, they are an excellent short sell candidate any time their price gets as lofty as it has this year. They will probably have to be beaten up by the big boys for awhile before they will be willing to sucumb to a take over. If you're real quick and pay attention, you may even be able to pin point the right time to go long on this one based on a takeover speculation. Hank

To: Franco Battista who wrote (8230)	12/12/1997 10:26:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9285

To Franco and ALL: It ain't gonna be a pretty day for me! Most of my shorts are up and my longs down. This ain't supposed to be the way edging works! When this happens you need to remind yourself that day-to-day price fluctuations don't matter. You will usually see regression to the mean after a foe good/bad days in a row. What matters is the long term movements which are determined by the fundamentals. Not a good idea to trade on noise. I always recall a sentence from Peter Lynch's CD on investing. Nice toy to listen to but not worth signing up! there he says: "During my times at Magelland 11 times (?) the market weent down by 10% or more and so did magellan. Interesting statistic. Pancho My last post for a while....