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Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John A. Shaffer who wrote (6623)	12/12/1997 10:00:00 AM
From: Rational	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

John: I want to know where she got the info that the PC server market was slowing and that tape demand was slowing. Did she really listen to the CC? This was publicly available by independent research groups. She extrapolated to DLT. I swear all the analysts are a bunch of idiots. This is generally true. No analyst is now talking about macro-finance changes that have ensued the failure of the Asian banking system, e.g., high cost of capital and credit crunch that Asian countries will experience. The cost of labor for DD manufacturing will be almost the same for the US and Asian DD makers since all DD makers have plants in Asia. Asian DD makers will have to raise the price of HDs, however, to break-even due to a very high cost of capital. This would mean that the dumping (if they want to continue) will have to be at higher prices or Asian DD makers will quit business. This bodes well for US DD makers that no analyst has yet fugured out or, if they have, they will not say so until their clients accumulate shares. Sankar

To: John A. Shaffer who wrote (6623)	12/12/1997 10:11:00 AM
From: still learning	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9124

Rather than fightingthe analysts and the tape, whatsay we look at their revised #s and see where we think the stock is going. "We are decreasing fiscal 1998 estimates from $2.26 to 1.81, reducing our fiscal 1999 estimates from $3.45 to $2.50, and reducing our rating on the shares to a 3-Neutral" If we see $1.81 this year (ALL: THIS DOES INLCUDE SPLITS!!!) and $2.50 next year. And we apply a multiple of 12x as of March or mid-April (after Q4), we get a $30 price once we are safely into next FY. So we should get a price moving from $20 toward $30 this Spring. I think that'sthe short-term reality unless and until we get earnings revisions upward. Given this hypothetical, what does everyone plan to do? I will possibly sell a portion at $25, another at $30 to lock in some of my gains once we start going up (yes, I bought at an average of $17 and let this market steal most of it back). Given that I have a large position, I plan to hold 2./3 of it for long-term (3-5 years) but this time I may be prepared to take some money off the table. Other opinions?