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To: Andrew Vance who wrote (10307)	12/12/1997 9:59:00 AM
From: Trader X	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 17305

I hope you're right, Andrew. about this being the "bottom". My experience has been that the most difficult thing about investing is "picking the bottom" of any correction or bear market. I think it would be prudent for MOST investors to sit on the sidelines and wait for a real shift in sentiment on the street before getting the special of the day. The most glaring problem with the retail analogy "blue light special", is that it's very easy to live with a sweater you buy at 50% off retail when it's at 75% off 3 weeks later. You know you still got a good deal. With stocks selling that much less 3 weeks later, you have a very damaged portfolio. And no sweater. I think that averaging down every 10% of this decline for thae past 2 months would pretty much ruin most of the people on SI. I posted a couple weeks ago, that these TECH Corrections this decade have started falling in the second half of ODD numbered years, and turned up the first half of even numbered years, always in April-May. This pattern is consistent since 1990. Best of luck to you Andrew, but I'd recommend that most people reading not follow your lead in this matter. -Kevin

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (10307)	12/12/1997 10:04:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

Wow, APM @ 13. I remember last January I was long and strong and had been for years. You preferred RDRT....I sold out of APM in February I think, and here you are a year later changing boats in mid-stream. Why? What made you swap out of Read Rite?

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (10307)	12/12/1997 10:58:00 AM
From: Trader X	Respond to of 17305

The flaw in "Averaging Down". ASYT down another $4 this morning. ASYT 10:31AM 19 1/16 \| -4 1/32 \| -17.46% The truth is, averaging down is an illusion created to justify holding a losing position. True "averaging down" is this: you earmark "x" number of dollars to invest in XYZ stock, and plan to buy "x" number in "y" number of increments. For instance, I want to buy $10,000 of MSFT in 2 equal increments. So I buy $5,000 worth at $100. When it goes to $90 I buy another $5,000. THAT is averaging down. If the stock had gone up, it would be "averaging up". Otherwise, each investment is a seperate event, graded on it's own results. Buying 1000 shares of AMAT at $25 does nothing to "save" an earlier purchase of 1000 shares at $35, anymore than buying 1000 shares of a different stock could. They are two totally seperate and individual investments, unless the addition buy-ins were planned. I know that you, Andrew, will not be changing your investment style because of this post. This is designed for other readers. -Kevin

To: Andrew Vance who wrote (10307)	12/13/1997 7:56:00 AM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17305

I never cease to be amazed. Although you declined to speak on APM, I received (unrequested) this in my e-mail. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Hi Guys, APM is a company with weak fundamentals in that they only produce certain components for the assembly of disk drives and the very people they sell to have the capability of producing these components. They also are smaller than their competitors. On the other hand, they recently developed some new technology for a disk drive component, and there p/e ratio is now down to 3.3. There is no technical reason as far as I can see write now to take a psition in their stock. But it's worth following because if it doesn't COLLAPSE due to their deficient areas, they should produce profits because they are a lean company and enjoy an INCREASE in the price of their stock. Then they will have plenty of room to go higher with the current p/e. Anyone with more on this firm? ALSO, anyone with opinions on CPRO, a small drug developer? Best wishes, James