To: Loren who wrote (2094 ) 12/12/1997 10:45:00 AM From: Mike Winn Respond to of 60323
Hi Loren, You gave really good arguments for TA. Let's me arbitrate the discussion between you and Steve. I think both of you are right at different time. I think we need TA to give us some idea about the sentiment of investors, i.e. is the stock in an uptrend or downtrend. Otherwise, I would have loaded up my truck with SNDK at 28 thinking it has reached the bottom and now my money is all tied up. TA is a statistical tools and it can help us get a better objective guess at a stock movement besides just looking at fundamental data. I know I made a lot of mistakes in the past being so focused on fundamental and also being too subjective and biased because I like the company. But my stock can only go up if everybody else like it along with me. Then when the stock goes down so low and the fundamentals of the company are so strong such as in the case of SNDK now, I say we can kiss goodbye to TA. I showed in my trivial post yesterday that a stock gain from 20 to 62 is the same as a stock gain from 26 to 81, and similarly stock gains from 30 to 93, 35 to 109, and so on. So if I sit around here waiting for TA buy signal, I may have to buy SNDK later at 26 or 30 instead of at 20. And then for me to get the same gain, I would have to wait for the stock to go up to 81 and 93 respectively at which the stock become very vulnerable to a crash. The earlier part of a stock up movement is much easier than the later part of a stock up movement. The higher a stock goes, the more vulnerable it is to a crash. I am not saying that if I buy at 20 today that it cannot go down to 15 in the next few days, but using the same statistical argument of TA, I can argue that the probability of the stock going down to 15 is much less that the probability of the stock going up from here, so I buy today. I know that TA folks can argue that we can stay in a stock that is in an uptrend for a short time and then switch stock when it gets too high, but we all have a day time job and we don't have all the time in the world to research new stocks. Well so much for arguments. Today, it's Microsoft turn to screw up the tech sector. When can we have our party? I mean the decision of the Justice department can only hurt Microsoft, what does it have to do with the rest of tech?