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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JimisJim who wrote (183350)	4/7/2014 1:10:15 AM
From: Hannoverian	1 Recommendation Recommended By JimisJim Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206148

JIM, I appreciate the clear clarification & I stand corrected. The sentence I extracted followed by "... but with higher priced wells requiring a slightly higher floor." followed by the price chart overwhelmed what should have been my read of your obvious proper assessment of where NG prices are heading. To the big picture, the Marcellus Mystery Tour as the source of all the YOY, 1/4 after 1/4 increase in the Domestic NG production as a reality is living on borrowed time without additional rigs, which as you note, will require higher NG pricing. The Oil:Gas ratio needs to begin approaching 15:1 then ultimately 10:1. The overall NG production #'s do not lie. When the weekly NG production #'s jump by 10 BCF/day that is not an Operator or two bring on new production via gathering lines connecting to pipelines. What we are witnessing are new pipelines from PA bringing ~150 wells, 1500 MMCF/day (1.5 BCF/day, 10 BCF/week) to the market of end users. Sometimes 1.0 BCF/day, but viewing robry's production data over time, I interpret the #'s as supporting ~3-4 new pipelines yielding 30 BCF/day of new production since ~10/1/'13. Easily ~400 wells from the Marcellus inventory of some 1200 wells. 1/3 the well inventory is now in full production & collectively declining day after day. The earliest 10/1/'13 grouping of 100 wells have declined by 30-35% by on or about 4/1/'14. Operator now building gathering lines, with maybe 80-150 MMCF/day, will be laid & connected to pipelines as time, equipment, permitting & cash flow permit. Again, removing 100 + wells with each hook up to an existing pipeline. My point, the Law of Big #'s is & will catch up with even the Marcellus. Actual drilling will mask the decline of the 3-4 newest pipelines # wise if the rigs are wisely located, which is likely. The production numbers will hold up through the injection season. Then my crystal ball grows cloudy. I do know the Winter is reluctantly retreating. Spring should bring a robust series of weekly injections. Then Summer & weather, hot or cool? Place your bet, O&G stock ownership or other risker positions, & watch the scenario unfold. The old Fram commercial comes to mind, but I also believe we will muddle through. & we are going to bring significant volumes of LNG to the market, right. Good night ...