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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (53710)	4/8/2014 11:32:55 PM
From: Spekulatius	2 Recommendations Recommended By Jurgis Bekepuris Mattyice Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78595

I have seen some bubbles and crashes with biotechs and I doubt that we are at the bottom. Bubbles are usually short but bear markets take months and years to play out. It's a tough field, with many losers and a few winners. Unless you have intimate knowledge, both are very hard to tell apart. I suggest reading up on the Biotech Value thread in SI, which has many posters that have demonstrated knowledge over the years. Short of that, stick with Biotechs that have proven themselves like CELG or GILD, if those baby's get thrown out with the bathwater. FWIW, the best contrarian indicator is that I get many pitches from Etrade for IPO shares nowadays. Many of those are for biotechs. As a group, those Etrade pitches are probably good shorts...

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (53710)	4/9/2014 1:37:27 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78595

I like some of the biotechs. Amgen, for one. Fits what I sometimes like: low p/e and high roe. (forward 13x and has >20% roe). 1.45 d/e seems high. Otoh, the $118 stock has $25 in cash (per Yahoo). Dividend while waiting. With all these companies, pipeline is important and difficult to evaluate. Even professional analysts in the sector get it wrong enough times to the point where I have trouble believing any of their judgments. Unless I can confirm otherwise, I'll just assume AMGN is large enough with resources and talent enough to keep their pipeline flowing.