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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (15777)	4/9/2014 9:29:07 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

The Quarterly SPX is 44% above it's 200 period MA, much as we were in March of 2000. Yeah.. it does bear a scary correlation with 2000.. We may trend higher for another retest of the highs, but I'm more inclined to think there is just TOO MUCH "event risk" going on here (Ukraine.. etc, as you aptly pointed out).. Who knows? Maybe Putin's people are looking at the same charts we are and see how vulnerable the markets are.. Maybe they are all shorting the US markets?.. ;) Right now though, it appears to be a foregone conclusion that Putin will invade E. Ukraine, if only to open up the supply corridors to Crimea. To supply that peninsula as it stands right now, is a major financial undertaking... So he's going to invade and it will be interesting to see how the West reacts. It's possible we might just retrace the S&P back to the 1500-1600 level, to retest support at the previous market tops. But that is STILL a pretty serious pull-back (300 points) from current levels. Btw, I heard about the blood moon sequence we're expecting to unfold, but I'm not a superstitious trader. However, I recognize that many OTHER traders are highly such, so I have to pay attention to that. Hawk

To: John Pitera who wrote (15777)	4/9/2014 10:05:45 AM
From: John Pitera	4 Recommendations Recommended By George Statham ggersh Hawkmoon roguedolphin Respond to of 33421

the SPX has had 6 separate outside days in the past couple of weeks ....very rare action....the daily chart almost has aspects of an Edwards and Magee Broadening top ( also sometimes called a Megaphone pattern).....a bearish phenomenon. as I have said the outside days are not kosher..... 6 outside days in the past couple of weeks..... very very unusual and skittish action, plus some of our proprietary daily and 60 minute work is showing that we have generated a sell. I have been told I am not currently allowed to post a couple of trading system signals that we have found work the best...... due to the concern of my client feeling that he does not want them being made public.... although I was posting them last spring..... The SPX is working to hold that 50 dma but it's anemic rally suggests that we are going to take that out this week to the downside... The Nasd which is leading has already taken out it's 50 day MA and we have seen the unwinding of the darling MOmentum stocks such as FB, twitter, Intuitive surgical, GOOG.and several others showing pronounced selling. 2 days ago we were running a scan of the the PIGS equity markets and the biggest market rallies the past 6 weeks were in Spain, Italy, Ireland and several other global equity markets that are PIGS for a reason. I find it analogous to the way that yield spreads for junk bonds always come in and tighten significantly to the AAA bonds and higher grade bonds when we are at the most bullish phase of the market cycle. oh yes and Spanish 10 year govt notes are at 3.19% only 49 basis points above US 10 year yields...... the Spanish rates have improved 151 basis points this past year ( rates have fallen in Spain) they are higher on US side. Portugal, Greece and Ireland have seen hugh decreases in yield the past 12 months as well. bloomberg.com John