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To: IGL who wrote (5475)12/12/1997 12:53:00 PM
From: Que  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10368
 
IGL, I'm sure you know more about tech issues than do I - thanks for your input. I wasn't thinking specifically of the NT threat to UNIX based systems, but now that you mention it I do see UNIX being replaced by NT in medium sized corp.s, and Oracle will have much more price competition in the larger NT market. The comparison I like to think of is what happened to mainframe manufacturers as the gap between mainframes and the upper end of the PC market began to close: as the mainframe market stagnated, they were forced to compete in the PC market as well; with lower margins, more competitors, lower customer loyalty etc. As a general rule I like to avoid companies who's revenues are tied to older, bulkier technologies.

The area I was thinking of where Oracle is challanging Microsoft is in its hopes for the network computer (thin client) market. I have doubts about the future of NCs, but should they become prevalent, I beleive that the key role Oracle hopes for in the NC market will likely be eaten away at by Microsoft and others. And recognizing that they are facing diminishing returns in their key markets, Oracle has pinned its hopes for the future on this new (as of yet potential) market.

I don't think that Oracle is a dead duck, I just think that early next century it will perform more like IBM did in the early to mid '90s, it will have a difficult period of adjustment with diminished growth.

I am not an expert on the tech sector, and as I mentioned I do not currently own any tech stocks. dax solicited my opinion and I gave it for whatever it is worth. I look forward to reading your views.

Thank You,

Live Long and Prosper