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Politics : A US National Health Care System? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (35863)	4/16/2014 7:57:56 PM
From: TimF	2 Recommendations Recommended By gamesmistress i-node Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42652

Frankly I'm a little surprised myself that cost inflation is going down so much... I thought it would take single payer to do that. Apparently it took a severe recession followed by a weak recovery to do that. Maybe a little of "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop" as well.

To: Road Walker who wrote (35863)	4/16/2014 8:28:00 PM
From: TimF	Respond to of 42652

The NHE data, compiled by the independent Office of the Actuary in the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), does show a slowdown in health spending in recent years. NHE spending growth per capita has averaged 3.1 percent since 2010, down from 5.9 percent in the previous decade. But the slowdown did not start abruptly in 2010. In 2002, NHE spending per capita rose 8.5 percent and then began to slow over the ensuring years. In 2008, NHE spending per capita rose just 3.7 percent – two years before Obamacare was enacted. Though the CEA paper fails to mention it, the HHS actuaries recently published their own paper explaining in detail why their estimates of health costs over the coming decade are lower now than they were a few years ago. They pointed to economic conditions, fiscal policy changes (such as the 2 percent sequester of Medicare payments), and a slowdown in growth in Medicaid, Medicare, and other government programs due to factors unrelated to Obamacare. Moreover, the actuaries noted that the effects of Obamacare itself increased their expectation of higher health costs. This shouldn’t be surprising. The law’s Medicaid expansion and new subsidies for insurance offered in the exchanges will greatly increase the demand for health services, and soaring demand always increases prices and costs. The actuaries forecast that Obamacare will increase overall national health spending over the period 2012 to 2022 by $621 billion. In 2014 alone, Obamacare will increase NHE growth from 4.5 percent to 6.1 percent. Over the full decade, the law will add an average of 0.1 percentage point to cost growth every year. By 2022, the actuaries expect NHE spending to reach 19.9 percent of GDP, up from 17.9 percent in 2012. None of this is mentioned in the CEA white paper. aei.org

To: Road Walker who wrote (35863)	4/16/2014 8:32:40 PM
From: TimF	1 Recommendation Recommended By i-node Respond to of 42652

The bad news is that, over time, the CBO doesn’t think this will be sustainable. As more people exit the employer-based market for the exchanges, insurers will have to broaden their networks; they just can’t serve that number of customers with the networks they have, and if they try to keep the networks small, regulators will probably have something to say. It’s worth noting, as I always do, that the CBO is required to assume that the current law will go into effect: that the employer mandate and the individual mandate are enforced, all the delayed provisions are allowed to take effect, the grandfathering ends. bloombergview.com