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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elwood who wrote (11470)	12/12/1997 4:25:00 PM
From: Yakov Lurye	Respond to of 25960

Elwood, not sure if you were asking for my opinion or posting the question to the thread, but since your message was addressed to me, here is my take: CYMER is in the same position as other stocks in the sector - "big" money wants to get out into safer sectors and wait there for a more clear picture. A fairly safe strategy - net cash outflow is driving all stocks down, inflows to tech funds that are down are relatively low, so if everything turns OK, they can buy back, posibly at cheaper valuations. Actually, CYMER is weathering this seloff relatively better than AMAT, LRCX and TER. SOX dropped 50 points in three days - so we can't expect miracles. From a longer-term perspective, I agree with an AMAT report issued last month by Prudential analyst (can't find the link, sorry). At the time AMAT was around 37-38. He saw 30% short-term downside (we've got it), up to100% upside in 12 months. His reasoning was that historically, up cycles in semis usually last for a couple of years, followed by serious slumps that last about a year. Based on observation that the current up cycle is only 6 months young, he'd expressed an opinion that Korean problems will not stop the overall up trend in semis sales. If he is right and uptrend in semis sales continues, all semi-equip stocks will rebound. Several posters (Mason, Zeev) on this thread had expressed an opinion that increasing CYMI position at this level is risky, or that the price could go lower. Their point of view is understandable. It is important to note though that their recommendations are not stock-specific, but rather sector-specific. The general price trend in the sector is down, so no stock is insured against further devaluation. Longer term, CYMER price will be determined by its ability to continue sell increasing quantities of lasers. It is almost certain that market for DUV lithography will grow in the next few years. The only serious long-term risk is that CYMER will loose a large chunk of the market share. If Lambda and Comatsu start making lasers that are as good or better, CYMER sales growth could slow down and there could be downside pressure on the price of lasers. Without sufficient data to assess this risk, I prefer to do nothing about my current long position. On a day like yesterday, some points could be saved by selling at the open and buying back at the close, but this is a matter of personal preference. I prefer daytrading stocks like AMAT and LRCX. Regards, Y.