To: Max Fletcher who wrote (5480 ) 12/12/1997 2:43:00 PM From: Que Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 10368
Max, its close to an all or nothing proposition. Once you have set aside funds to convert it makes no more sense to do it earlier rather than later, unless you plan to resell the stock during the warrant call (as part of an arbitrage play.) Those who have the funds to convert might be waiting as long as their brokers allow to make sure that the stock will not be available for the strike price or less. There is considerable resistence to the stock dropping to 5, but were it to do so, their would be no incentive to convert as those who planned to convert could just buy the stock outright. On the other hand, once it becomes a certainty that the warrant call will go through, the stock might well rise on the certainty that the company will receive the funds. Regarding warrant buying being done by people planning to convert, the price behavior up to this week would indicate that this might not be the case. Those planning to convert would be equally inclined to buy the stock outright, assuming the cost was the same. The fact that up till a few days ago the warrant was not consistently trading at a discount indicates to me the the majority of warrant buyers were one of two types: 1) buying as option that they might choose to exercise should it remain in the money - they can thus commit less money to BNGO in the short term and put a definite limit on the amount they can lose or 2) buying with the idea of reselling before the end of the call (hopefully at a profit). The first kind has the funds to convert, but may choose to sell, the second is speculating. Furthermore there are those who buy and sell warrants every day or every few days hoping to profit on short-term swings in the price. As a result, it is impossible to tell how many times the warrants will change hands during the call. I made a guess that each unexercisable warrant would change hands twice during the call, but this is just a guess. L.L. & P.