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Politics : View from the Center and Left -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (249688)	4/26/2014 7:39:12 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 540724

It seems that Nate Cohn is the NYT's answer to losing Nate Silver to ESPN. Yet another statistician who is politically inclined. He writes for NYT's new blog, the Upshot. Taking a Spin: The Dream Outcome for Democrats Nate Cohn APRIL 25, 2014 nytimes.com A lot can and will change in the battle for control of the Senate over the next six months. Fortunately, Leo, the Senate model for The Upshot, has a great tool to help illustrate probability: spinners that generate election possibilities in accordance with Leo’s odds. I have wasted an inordinate amount of time spinning these spinners over the last few weeks. I have seen some crazy things. To make this habit marginally more productive, I’ll be writing up one of these possibilities every Friday. I make only one promise: I’ll offer my first spin of Friday, and I won’t fish for crazy wheels. Fortunately, today’s spin is, well, fairly crazy. Photo On this spin, the Democrats win, by an unlikely margin. Needless to say, this is a great outcome for Democrats. None of the incumbent Democrats lose re-election, and the Republicans lose two red states where they are favored by a large margin: Kentucky and Montana. The model gives Democrats only a 3 percent chance of ending up with the 54 seats envisioned here. And a Democratic win in Kentucky would almost be unprecedented. But it’s still possible. (Remember, this is a lesson in probability.) For Democrats to do that well, they’d need the national political environment to turn in their favor. That might already be happening. President Obama’s approval ratings seem to have ticked up since April 1, when he was greeted with positive health care enrollment numbers. It’s possible that this change is already filtering down to the Senate races, where Democrats have had good news in states like Arkansas. Even in this scenario, though, it would be difficult for Democrats to do that well. But if we woke up on Nov. 5 with these Senate results, I don’t think election analysts will be struggling to comprehend what happened. We will have learned that Southern Democratic incumbents can still win in the South, which is clearly a distinct possibility given recent history. We will have learned that, yes, an approval rating in the low 40s can cost an incumbent senator re-election in a state as favorable as Kentucky is for Mitch McConnell. And no one should be completely stunned by a Democratic victory in an open contest in Montana, a state that often supports Democratic candidates for Senate. The Upshot provides news, analysis and graphics about politics, policy and everyday life. Follow us on Facebook and Twitter.