Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (105896)	4/28/2014 9:43:25 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218385

re euro banks, they are dead just do not know it yet re china, am not concerned just in / out and clipped / pasted ... On 29 Apr, 2014, at 7:16 am, J wrote: exactly national and private savings growing reserves growing economy adjusting problems recognised solutions worked on so much to do and so much resources to call upon what is the problem? (1) "large lending to money-losing investments acting as drag on growth" - define "money losing” for civilisation state china that is in a once-in-800-years systemic reform and engineering re-build - drag on growth has happened, down to 7.x percent, so what else? (2) “sums saved in real estate … no good savings” - the real estate shall be taken up - markets shall clear - sums saved / invested has answered its necessary call call of duty - building inventory in line w/ math of urbanisation - entire episode is a transition phase - what else? (3) “large sums to local governments … adding to national debt” - it is news to me that china should neither leverage national debt nor have one - i would have thought net net as long as reform begets growth and tees up stability, all good - especially if the middle class grows rather than shrinks (4) “credit expansion will continue to generate less boost … until investment begins to fall …” - yes, and rain usually follows thunder led by lightening and before sun shine - china continues to be under-built and requires more, or moar, or better still, much moar infrastructure investment - and, thankfully, has the still-increasing domestic savings pool to draw on to do the necessary (5) “many chinese companies declaring growth and profit by extending credit to book sales …” - it is novel indeed that sales increase can take place w/o working capital boost - i guess it happens on patrick’s planet (6) “bad debt being refinanced by promising unrealistic / immediate returns on illiquid assets. ponzu schemes won’t end well” - yes, but not when the middle class continues to grow, the math remains friendly, and the once-in-800-blah-blah-blah stays on course - china does everything big patrick could have written his 6 reasons at anytime since 1949, and be as insightful. cheers, j On 29 Apr, 2014, at 7:08 am, R wrote: D, first a disclaimer. I know little about Chinese banks. I only have questions. What is the difference between Chinese banks, or EU banks, or US banks? All of them are survived by central banks or regulators looking the other way. If Chinese banks need to be bailed out, China still have a bunch of reserves and they have not gone the print print print route yet, as other countries have done. So while I think Chinese banks stink like the rest of them, I do not think they are the weakest link, but what do I know. On Mon, Apr 28, 2014 at 3:52 PM, D wrote: Patrick Chovanec lists 6 reasons in support of article "China’s crisis is coming – the only question is how big it will be". On 4/28/2014 3:45 PM, J wrote: china banking is a public utility called money transfer conduit-ing china banking is as vulnerable to real estate downturn as a water pipe is at risk from a draught, none issue china banking has been a non-issue since 1949 On 29 Apr, 2014, at 6:29 am, D wrote: How Vulnerable are Chinese Banks to a Real Estate Downturn? blogs.piie.com