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Non-Tech : Littlefield Corporation (LTFD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jonathan Brown who wrote (5487)	12/12/1997 3:56:00 PM
From: SE	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10368

But like Scott (forgive me if I'm misreading you, S), I can't help but wonder if this decline involves more than the warrants and shorting. You are not misreading me. I have been trying to find out what it might be if it isn't just the arbs etc....No one I talk to can come up with anything. I don't blame you for waiting it out however. GO PACK GO! -Scott

To: Jonathan Brown who wrote (5487)	12/12/1997 4:42:00 PM
From: Que	Respond to of 10368

Hi JB, yep we goofed, we all goofed, I goofed. Going back a month or so before the call I was crying hearye hearye the call comethe, and yet I completely failed to anticipate what affect that would have on the market. I argued, forcefully enough to persuade myself, that the call would have little impact on the stock price. My reasoning was that I expected the stock to be marginable, and to trade at 10 or above by the time the call was issued (How did I know the co. would be so hot to have it all on the books by year-end?) In such a circumstance all of the funds for exercise could have come from margining the stock as it was converted. Think how different things might have been if both my erroneous assumptions had been true! There were a limited number of us out there, and we just didn't have $17 million to pony up.. imagine if we could have easily filled that gap on our own. I need to find a warrant that has a strike price less than half the price of the stock and is full marginabile at the time of the call - for comparison's sake. Ah well, investors are herd animals, once that $17mil gap opened up and BNGO began to slide into it, where were we to find the new investors? They would have crawled out of the woodwork if we had been rising, or even stable with prospects of improved cash position et al. But with that slide... why shouldn't bargain hunters wait until the last week of the call? The powers that be certainly exacerbated this situation (the shorting/panics)... but all along we should have been asking ourselves:'where is that $17 million going to come from?' I don't think this was a situation where TA or FA would have been certain to save you. What would have saved us is experience. Given experience in a similar situation we could have pointed to either TA (that MACD sell signal) or FA ('where the heck is that $17 million going to come from? Triple the float in 39 days?') to justify a defensive move prior to the call. Aside from having learned a very special and heartwarming lesson in warrant calls, I am reminded that a stock price is not determined by fundimental ratios, it is always a product of demand and supply: the fundamentals only determine how value is perceived - they do not set value. And yes, a stock with an annual growth rate of 100% can trade at a PE of 15 - there ain't no law agin' it. Well enough of my yakking Live Long and Prosper