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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wayners who wrote (55306)	5/1/2014 9:19:57 AM
From: Real Man	1 Recommendation Recommended By ggersh Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71475

Yeah, the mathematics of Martindale is the mathematics of a binomial distribution.... Not so far from interest rates derivative pricing -g- In the latter case it is not possible for authorities to comprehend they are feeding a monster, because of the complexity of math involved.... In the end what's involved is similar to Martindale, and the Fed and co cutting the distribution tail amounts to NO FREE MARKET and guaranteed profits for SOME. By doing so, the Fed blows gigantic financial bubble, the end of which will be collapse of the currency (or "bankruptcy" of the Fed - the printing press can't go bankrupt, it can make us bankrupt by running for too long!)

To: Wayners who wrote (55306)	5/1/2014 9:37:45 AM
From: Horgad	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71475

But the stock market is not random... So how would you attempt to employee the strategy there? And even if you consider the probability of streaks, when you draw out the game long enough to its inevitable conclusion the strategy is loser. "As an example, consider a bettor with an available fortune, or credit, of (approximately 9 trillion) units, roughly half the size of the current US national debt in dollars. With this very large fortune, the player can afford to lose on the first 42 tosses, but a loss on the 43rd cannot be covered. The probability of losing on the first 42 tosses is , which will be a very small number unless tails are nearly certain on each toss. In the fair case where , we could expect to wait something on the order of tosses before seeing 42 consecutive tails; tossing coins at the rate of one toss per second, this would require approximately 279,000 years." So after 279,000 years and tosses, the dude has made / 2 (winning on half the tosses) and then he loses . OR suppose he quits after 279,000 years right before he loses. So he doubled his money in 279,000 years? Wohoo? In other words, in the best case scenario, the cost of being forced to keep your 9 trillion liquid enough to cover a bad streak likely invalidates the strategy.