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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clam Clam who wrote (1395)	12/12/1997 5:35:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3033

The question is what's in the pipeline for Baanf, and SAP. Baan's already getting nailed because of rumors that PSFT got 'em kicked out of Boeing. I think the high end enterprise apps cycle (which is finite anyhow) is ending soon. I don't think those guys can scale their business models down to the mid range or invent customer interaction apps that compete that well with vntv or sebl. I'm hearing ok things about vntv's quarter, anyone have any decent pulse checks? Clam: Although he still had a buy rating on Oracle, Chuck does get a lot of credit along with Sherlund for firing a warning shot. However, they both stated they expected Oracle to produce an in-line quarter. We won't see much of a rebound until we can get this Korean thing resolved. Which won't be until their elections are done with. Some folks are nervous that asian flu will infect Japan too. Japan is on much sounder financial footing so I hope not. If Japan goes down, then the market will finally have a catalyst that brings returns to the long term mean. I still think that over the next year to 18 months we'll see decent performance in genuine emerging growth companies. Why pay a 50 multiple for 5 to 15% growth when you can pay a 30 multpplie for 50% growth? Maybe we'll have a decent rally in tech by year end. Can you guys BELIEVE the arrogance of Ellison's comments at Internet world? "If you lost money in the market yesterday, you can make it up in the savings from NC's." He's really a world class jerk that's only interested in his own ego. Anything salvageable at scop, clfy or pega? Have a nice weekend.... TD

To: Clam Clam who wrote (1395)	12/14/1997 7:12:00 PM
From: Konehead	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3033

Clam, I know we're on the VNTV thread here, but since we're on the subject of Oracle... I'm actually amazed that Oracle has been able to maintain its pricing in the database market for this long, and it's because the SQL Server code that Microsoft inherited was not close to being able to scale up (no row level locking being a primary deficiency), and NT not yet scalable on SMP. Don't forget that Oracle has long been planning for DBMS license revenue growth to slow. As a result, Oracle built a very healthy apps business and a large and growing consulting business. So I'm afraid I don't buy into your forecast for Oracle. At 23 it's a great buy.. try doing a valuation relative to PSFT, BAANF, etc., keeping in mind Oracle is doing $1 billion of apps revenue and growing.