Neil:
I found your post most entertaining. I haven't read that kind of fiction, mixed with comedy in a quite a while:
You state: "You should be aware that this
stock is still being traded based on future potential.."
You did mean this to be funny, correct. No long, not even you or Tom can justify the price based on present results.
You then state: "those that understand the
financial significance of the future use of Presstek products and importance of the
company to the industry are quietly accumulating shares. "
I guess Oxley and Cabot Money Management having sold almost a million shares are uninformed. Not to mention the countless other funds found on Bloomberg's 13F report that have dramatically reduced, or sold all there shares. It must be a great feeling to be on of the "few" who understand.
You then state "I KNOW there is great interest from
other companies that wish to apply the Presstek products into their own lines."
I am sure there is, but they have had 3 years, and the line doesn't look very long.
One of my favorites: "If you believe this company is PRESENTLY so dependent or reliant on one
manufacturer for continuing increases in their revenue, I believe you are dead
wrong. From what I see regarding this companies diversification into other
increasing revenue sources, Presstek will quickly absorb and surpass existing
income received from Heidelberg from the other contributions to income. "
Mia copa, I guess I overestimated the importance of a customer MAKING UP 80% OF THE BUSINESS. Neil, how easy is it to find another customer that does almost 80 million of business.
Another incredible statement: "You seem to forget.....Presstek terminated the Exclusive Agreement with
Heidelberg.... it is not the other way around. It should be obvious that Presstek
would not have made this arrangement unless there were other outside interests and
that they had knowledge of future Presstek revenue increases to be obtained from
new manufacturer agreements"
I don't know Neil, but I have heard many individuals resigning to avoid being fired. Possible?
Another possibility, is Heidelberg concluded the pricing and fees Prsstek disired weren't feasable. Time will tell.
You then state: " Pressteks products are "leading edge" and will be utilized
across the world. "
Any articles in the trades to support this view? I couldn't find any!
You then broadly state: "The upcoming direct imaging press from Nilpeter is targeted as a most certain big
hit..... The same with on-can imaging from the Alcoa endeavor."
Targeted by who besides Presstek. How old is the Nilpeter program? Alcoa? Show me the money, not the hype!
You then state: "Do you believe sales and installs of Quickmasters have ceased significantly
dropped? Do you believe the production of this press at Heidelberg in Germany has
decreased
significantly? Again....you're wrong! Heidelberg Centers are stating their monthly
new sales of QMDI's have never been better! "
Neil, when you ask these centers about sales, what do you expect them to say? Sales are slowing, doesn't sound like an effective sales pitch to me.
Neil, Given your contacts at Presstek, and you unofficial position as chief cheerleader, why don't you urge them to release these figures. Other than allowing its own investors to trade based upon fact, instead of hype, whats the down side. Is Presstek fearful of full disclosure, IMO, they are.
You then make another one of your broad unsupported statements:
"This press is a leading seller and
money maker to Heidelberg, has the interest of the print world and will continue to
be a strong factor for years to come. This press is only now being targeted for many
new markets. "
Says who, are sales broken out in Hdlbrgs 10 k or equivilent, show me.
As for the press being a leading seller, PRESSTEKS TOTAL SALES FOR 1998 WON'T EQUAL 50% OF HEIDELBERGS ORDERS WRITTEN AT PRINT 97. How did you ever reach this absurd conclusion?
You then state: "When KBA/Scitex 74-Karat press begins
production in 1998, hundreds of new DI presses imaging Presstek plates will add
nicely to the increasing number of other units imaging the patented plates. "
How many KBA scitex presses do you think will be install in 1998?
10, 20, what?
You then state: "I see Presstek starting the Catalina line in January (as announced) and due to the
available capacity, word is that others may also come to Presstek to manufacture
their plates at this new vacuum facility. "
Given the tremendous overcapacity in the plate manufacturing market, why would a competitor shift to Presstek's Catalina facility.
I agree and disagree wihth the your next statement: " The new capacity and space is huge for
thinking present plate usage. It appears Presstek has planned for this possibility."
The space is huge for present plate usage. Where we disagree is whether this is a function of weaker than expected sales, as indicated by the reduction orders by Heidelberg, or your bazaar rationalization of being the plate manufacturer to the industry. Dupont just built a new plate plant in England, Kodak just joined with Polychrome, who are they going to make plates for? This statement is rediculous on its face.
The next "Neilism" is: "...It is
so far superior to the other offerings, it is really the only processless plate for
consideration based on the opinion of most people I ask. "
Neil, I read dozens of trades, as do you. I have yet to see anyone make anything more than a passing comment about the Pearlgold Plate, except for PRst press releases. Perhaps you could support this statement with a site to a trade reference. I recognize that you may regard yourself as an expert, but perhaps you could point us to another expert that agrees with you.
The next statement will be proven right or wrong in the next 120 days:
"If first
quarter 98 is slightly lower than the prior 4th quarter, it will only be after information
regarding future upcoming revenue has this stock trading forward in multiples of it's
current rate. "
Neil, what if revenues are less than 1st or second quarter 1997, forget fourth quarter. Neil, AT WHAT REDUCED LEVEL OF SALES DO YOU BECOME A SELLER?
Neil, I agree 100% with the following: "It would also benefit shareholders if Presstek were to interject their interpretation of
actual value to the company (future product sales etc.) when new project
announcement or strategic alignments are made. Also, when royalty is to be paid,
(exmp. 74-Karat press) that information should also be included in the company
press release."
I just take it a step further, Presstek should break out plate sales, and installed base of DI presses.
IF PRESSTEKS MANAGEMENT HAD THE CONFIDENCE IN ITS PRODUCTS AND FUTURE THAT YOU DO, THEY SHOULD NOT HIDE THESE FIGURES WHICH ARE KEY TO MAKING AN INFORMED INVESTMENT DECISION. DISCLOSURE WOULD CERTAINLY ASSIST LONGS AND SHORTS IN THERE ANALYSIS. MANAGEMENT SHOULD NOT COMPLAIN ABOUT THE SHORTS AND OUR OPINIONS, IF THEY ARE UNWILLING TO DISCLOSE THE INFORMATION THAT WOULD PROVE US RIGHT OR WRONG!! |
