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To: Dan Spillane who wrote (6362)12/12/1997 6:58:00 PM
From: Mike Winn  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42804
 
Thanks Dan, for the quick response. Now a shorter question. Do you think it's good to be in tech stocks next year? This tech market is so complex now that there are so many mitigating factors that can affect your stock. I am thinking about investing in retail stocks next year. Cheap imports, better earnings, real simple idea.



To: Dan Spillane who wrote (6362)12/15/1997 11:12:00 PM
From: Dan Spillane  Respond to of 42804
 
Dan predicts the future once again (patting myself on the back). (Gasp) Are Chip
shortages coming next due to breakdown of Korean semi industry logistics???

On December 12th, I said:
How are Samsung and others going to borrow money in such an environment?
Further, with the severe devaluation of the won, everything IS NOT rosy. Korean
semi cos must deal with the local breakdown of logistics...and how can they
afford certain items in the world market needed to produce product, including
fabs and raw materials? Yep, logistics are breaking down. Suppliers and
distributors in Korea are going bankrupt. When this happens, the US semi
industry will have a chance to take away market from Korea. Yes, perhaps even
world shortages -- which only US companies can fill -- if things go downhill in
Korea.
(full text)
Message 2953009

...THEN, three days later, December 15th, the headline:
S.Korea firms having trouble with weak won - govt
Reuters, Monday, December 15, 1997 at 22:33

Notice, from the article below:
" Exporters, the dynamos of the South Korean economy, were
having problems securing raw materials and machinery because of
difficulty in obtaining export financing, the ministry said."

(full text):
SEOUL, Dec 16 (Reuters) - South Korean firms are suffering
huge foreign exchange translation losses and difficulties in
securing raw materials and machinery imports due to the fall of
the won against the dollar, the Trade Ministry said on Tuesday.
A ministry statement said that as of December 11, listed
companies, excluding financial firms, were estimated to be
running a combined 38 trillion won loss from the evaluation of
their foreign currency-denominated assets and liabilities.
The ministry quoted the Korea Listed Companies Association,
which said the figure compared with a combined two trillion won
loss for the first 10 months of last year.
The won closed on Monday at 1,563.9 to the dollar against
844.2 at the end of last year.
The won had lost more than 50 percent of its value against
the dollar compared with the beginning of the year when it hit a
record low of 1,891.4 last Friday.
Exporters, the dynamos of the South Korean economy, were
having problems securing raw materials and machinery because of
difficulty in obtaining export financing, the ministry said.
It said imports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas had
also been problematic. The statement did not elaborate, but
company officials have said that local companies had been
refused imports on a deferred payment basis.
The ministry said stocks of petrochemical products, raw
rubber and raw hide were now sufficient for less than a month's
demand.
The ministry said the statement was drawn up to brief
President Kim Young-sam for a meeting of economic ministers on
Tuesday to review the progress of economic restructuring.
South Korea has been actively promoting wide-ranging
industrial reform and restructuring under a $57 billion bail-out
package led by the International Monetary Fund.