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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (51245)	5/13/2014 2:53:22 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation Recommended By Hawkmoon Respond to of 86355

Taupo is ready to go too. I calculate there is a 1:7 chance of it going up in a single lifetime [ 70 years]. If it does go off tomorrow, then it would end a LOT more than a single lifetime. About 50,000 immediately and probably another 50,000 from heavy fallout downwind and frothy pyroclastic 100 km per hour flow down the Waikato river valley towards and maybe through Cambridge and Hamilton. Hinuera stone is quarried from one such flow a similar distance from Taupo. Those gaseous pumice eruptions don't give much warning that it's time to flee. 50,000 people trying to leave town simultaneously cannot fit along a road. At 5000 vehicles per hour [which would not in fact be achievable as people drive cars like chimps] and 2 people per car, that would take 5 hours. In fact the first crash would block the road. There would be many crashes. The warning would be a matter of minutes, not hours or days. The eruption sequence is a bit like Old Geyser and other geysers like Waimangu. The liquids start turning to gases, which pushes off material on top, which releases more pressure, which turns more liquid to gas, and away it goes. The difference between a geyser and such an eruption is that when steam and water reach the air, they simply cool. When such volcanoes erupt, the hydrocarbons ignite in a colossal and continuous explosion, firing 1000 km3 of pumice up 40 km or so. The timing of eruptions depends on the magma chamber being fully loaded with hydrocarbons, water and light stuff from subducted sedimentary deposits, so that the upward pressure exceeds the downward force from the overburden, groundwater, surface water, air pressure and gravitational force from the Moon and Sun. Even huge earthquakes won't cause an eruption if the downward forces are still in charge, like a pressure cooker knob keeping the water in liquid phase. But if temperature rises or upward forces increase due to displacement of heavier material with more incoming hydrocarbons, water and light stuff, then a subduction earthquake of the right sort could well precipitate the action. If ground water levels are low, air pressure is low, and there's a king tide due, then run for it if there's a subduction slippage earthquake as that will put upward force on the column. Mqurice Waimangu geyser erupting