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To: pyslent who wrote (169654)	5/20/2014 5:34:53 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 213176

Remember that it is China and CM ... 1.1 billion and 750 million. Way too soon to be negative or positive.

To: pyslent who wrote (169654)	5/21/2014 12:22:08 AM
From: slacker711	2 Recommendations Recommended By HerbVic JP Sullivan Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213176

Right, China Mobile needs to average 12 million 4G adds a month the rest of the year to achieve this goal. Considering the current ramp rate, Mobile will likely need to end the year at a 20 million 4G adds a month pace. Last year, Mobile added 104m 3G customers at a pretty steady pace. 3G adds this year seem to be up maybe 20% YoY, not enough to think that there are 20m / month worth of buyers primed for conversion to 4G once the coverage and handset selection improves. According to the MII stats, total TD-SCDMA plus TD-LTE shipments were 53 million in Q1 so there is still enough volume to hit the target. The transition from TD-SCDMA to TD-LTE would have to happen nearly overnight though. From an Apple perspective, total TD-LTE sales are irrelevant but the underlying reasons for the slow takeup might give us insight into Apple's trend in China. If the issue is low-cost handsets, then not much will change for Apple. If the problem is coverage, then we could probably expect iPhone sales to accelerate as the coverage increases. Slacker