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Gold/Mining/Energy : FSCNY -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: B Hamilton who wrote (36)	12/13/1997 2:48:00 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 52

I'm not worrying about FSCNY, maybe I ought to be. :) Anyway, here is a (deflationary) case for $100 gold: (1) Countries that export mostly gold get their currencies dropped through the floor, so their cost of production does too. (2) Labor costs drop even in the US, so US production costs drop too. (3) Total supply of gold is pretty huge compared to world yearly production. So bankrupting the producers and closing all the mines doesn't change the short term (i.e. less than a lot of year) supply/demand equation much. In particular, holders of gold can sell something like 30 years production if they felt like it. So the mines could shut down for a generation without the user running out of the stuff. This is basically a consequence of the fact that the suppliers of gold and the producers of gold are two different animals. On the other hand, I don't think any of that is going to happen, cause the Fed is inflating the money supply as fast as they can. If we don't have tough times ahead, inflation will bring gold back up. If we do have tough times ahead, the flight away from depreciating paper assets will bring gold back up. So for a long term hold, I think FSCNY is pretty safe. But I've been wrong before... -- Carl

To: B Hamilton who wrote (36)	12/13/1997 7:59:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 52

Robert Prechter wrote "At the Crest of the Tidal Wave", a forecast for the coming bear market. Prechter is not a Gloom and Doomer, but follows the elliot wave principle and the crowd behaviors effect on markets. elliottwave.com He is very publicity shy, probably due to his "politically uncorrect' view of the future. Another reason is he thought Dow 5000 would be the peak, so all the bulls have been riding him hard. In 1982 at the peak of bearishness when everyone had just been beaten up in a 17 year bear equity market, people would have said you were crazy, If you predicted a fantastic bull run for the next 15 years (actually Prechter did in 1982!). Now that we are at the pinnacle of optimism, but maybe leaping to the other side, nobody believes that we could have a bear market of equal magnitude, nobody believed it in the mid 60's, during the nifty fifty craze. Given the heated runup from November 12th to December 5th of the S&P while the broader market and the Nasdaq continued in a slump from October 27th, we might be in the nifty 500 craze, need more stocks this time to satisfy all the boomers. Prechter could be wrong on gold though, but even if he's right on gold I think we could have a nice rally off these heavily oversold conditions. quote.yahoo.com This last leg down was roughly a 40% panic sell-off and looks like we may be at a reversal point. Bob