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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (184004)	5/21/2014 8:27:13 PM
From: JimisJim	Respond to of 206184

Iso: in a perfect world, I might believe Mexico could see a double to 5 million bbs/day, but even the article you posted says several times that it may take some years to see significant increases and that it will cost lots of money. The reserves/production estimates were made by XOM and CitiGroup who both have vested interests in making such wild claims of doubling Mexican oil production. There is potential to produce a lot more oil in Mexico, but IMO by the time any of that new/increased production actually hits the market? Cantarell and other current producing fields' production will have dropped so far, it would surprise me if total Mexican production ever got back to just 3 million to 3.5 million bbls. per day. However, as you say, if Mexico can even claw back to 3.5 million, nobody will notice how much less that is than the 5 million predicted by XOM -- note they said, "Exxon’s forecast, compiled annually by a team of company economists, scientists and engineers, didn’t take into account any changes in Mexico..." In other words, not factoring in falling production from current levels -- which is accelerating in Mexico -- could put Mexican production at 5 million... wasn't that long ago, Mexico was producing almost 3.5 million and now that's dropped to 2.5-2.8 million depending on whose math you trust (and let's admit that most of the times when people talk about such things, they are basically guessing until it becomes hindsight in terms of actual oil produced). Remember when SA said they were going to increase their oil production to over 12.5 million bbls a day, and some claimed they had the ability to produce 15 million bbls/day? Well, they didn't (couldn't?). Again, depending on what numbers you believe, their production has been in the 9-10 million range for 15 years or so. They've never got over 11 million and even that number was suspect in that it included all liquids in the total. Having said all of that, I think it is entirely possible that North American (Canada, US and Mexico combined) production could match or surpass SA.