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To: Celtictrader who wrote (184023)5/23/2014 1:43:49 PM
From: MIRU1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Brumar89

  Respond to of 206166
 
The down revision of Monterey shale reserves is of no importance. Several issues both geologic and political took this formation off the radar long ago. The real horizontal drilling misunderstanding is that it is not all shale (source rock) but there is lots of drilling in reservoir rock that has a low recovery factor with conventional drilling.



To: Celtictrader who wrote (184023)5/23/2014 4:58:35 PM
From: isopatch1 Recommendation

Recommended By
JimisJim

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206166
 
As always, there are bulls and bears.

<Crew Change: Millennials Hit the Oil Patch

By Isaac Arnsdorf May 22, 2014

Mark Hiduke recently raised $100 million to build his three-week-old company. The 27-year-old isn’t a Silicon Valley technology entrepreneur. He’s a Texas oilman.
Now that a breakthrough in shale drilling technology has U.S. oil and gas production booming, an aging workforce is welcoming a new generation of wildcatters, engineers, and aspiring oil barons. After years of failing to attract and retain young talent, the industry is suddenly brimming with upstart millennials such as Hiduke—oil and gas veterans call it “the great crew change.” “I’ve never seen an industry do what the oil and gas industry has done in the last 10 years,” says T. Boone Pickens, the 86-year-old oilman. “Ten years ago I could not have made this statement that you have picked the right career.”

Hiduke’s company, Dallas-based PetroCore, received the $100 million commitment from a local private equity firm in May. Hiduke and three partners plan to buy underdeveloped land and drill shale wells, he says. The shale boom has “created a lot of opportunity for young professionals to jump in and be given enormous responsibility.”

The ease with which newcomers such as Hiduke raise money could turn out to be a blessing or a curse, according to Nathen McEown, a 33-year-old accountant at Whitley Penn who organizes networking dinners. “These guys are going to be the poster children of self-made oil and gas tycoons,” he says. “Or they could be the poster children of how too much money is chasing deals.”



When Patrick Collins was a kid, his father, an oilman, warned him to stay away from the industry because the U.S. was running out of crude. The Midland (Tex.) native went off to New York to study history at Columbia University. He did a marketing internship, then went to business school and worked for a hedge fund research firm before deciding to retrace his father’s footsteps. In 2008 he founded Cortez Resources, which buys leases in resource-rich areas and sells them to drilling companies. The company has sold leases valued at more than $100 million. “Everyone who had kids said don’t get into this business,” says Collins, 34. “I tried to get away, but I love this industry.”

One of Collins’s friends, Ryan Watts, graduated from the energy management program at the University of Oklahoma in 2004 when there were about 100 students enrolled. Today the program has more than 600, according to the university’s website. “The shale revolution changed everything,” says Watts, 34. His company, Addax Minerals, has raised about $35 million from wealthy families and individuals to buy stakes in shale-rich areas.

Young entrepreneurs are competing against and sometimes collaborating with industry veterans twice their age. About 71 percent of the workforce is 50 or older, according to a survey by the Independent Petroleum Association of America. At one of their first meetings, Collins says, he and his business partner were dealing with two men who were more than 80 years old. At the same time, the ranks of the Dallas chapter of Young Professionals in Energy have swelled 60 percent, to 4,000, since 2009. Most new members are under age 37.

The gap in generations resulted from the period of low oil prices starting in the 1980s through the mid-2000s, when shale drilling took off. “What you had was an industry that went up, went down, there were constantly people getting laid off, and people got to the point where they just didn’t want to be in the oil industry,” says Kirk Lazarine, 60, who spent much of his career at Chevron ( CVX). “That’s why you see that 20-year gap, because the industry was so tormented until 2005.” Lazarine now works at Grey Rock Energy Partners, which buys minority stakes in wells. Grey Rock was founded in 2013 by Matt Miller, 30, a former McKinsey consultant, and Griffin Perry, 30, the son of Texas Governor Rick Perry.

Since the generational shift coincides with a technological breakthrough, the younger crop knows only the shale boom, and knowledge of conventional drilling might retire with the baby boomers, says Kimberly Lacher, 38, who with Wood Brookshire, 31, runs Vendera Resources. The company has invested more than $50 million in about 1,200 wells. Miller has similar concerns. “What’s going to happen when the older folks retire, we don’t know,” he says. “You’re going to see a lot of volatility. You’re going to see young people making decisions that were handled by predecessors who had more experience.”>

businessweek.com



To: Celtictrader who wrote (184023)5/23/2014 5:36:02 PM
From: upanddown6 Recommendations

Recommended By
Bruce L
Brumar89
dvdw©
Ed Ajootian
isopatch

and 1 more member

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206166
 
I'll believe one of these peak oil guys when the first one admits how laughably wrong they have been for the last 7-8 years. I won't hold my breath waiting for that.

The 16B estimate was done by some consulting outfit hired by the EIA and never made any sense since there was so little well history in the Monterey. There still isn't much history so this new estimate sounds like another WAG. The truth is probably someplace in between the two numbers.

Martenson uses this writedown of the Monterey to then imply that the whole shale thing is about to collapse. He never mentions that the Bakken was estimated at 4B when the Monterey was estimated at 16B and now EIA says the Bakken may have 8B since the Three Forks which underlies the Bakken could also have 4B. Who knows what is under the Three Forks?

I just think shale, especially the stacked plays, is still in the early innings and that numerous new discoveries as well as major technological advances are still ahead.



To: Celtictrader who wrote (184023)5/23/2014 6:51:09 PM
From: Bearcatbob2 Recommendations

Recommended By
biofisher
xxreno

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206166
 
"when the federal government announced a hefty downward revision"

And someone believes the "federal government"? My first thought is that this takes the pressure off of California to approve all the fracking needed to develop the resource. Yup conspiratorial thought.



To: Celtictrader who wrote (184023)5/28/2014 11:44:28 AM
From: Dennis Roth1 Recommendation

Recommended By
isopatch

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206166
 
Is Shale Drilling a Sham?
By Robert Rapier on May 27, 2014 investingdaily.com

After five years of growing oil and gas production in the US, are the skeptics finally vindicated? Is it really possible that the shale boom is just a mirage or myth, as some have been claiming for years now?