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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (25096)	12/13/1997 8:27:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 132070

jeff, it is a stock picker's market, imho. good luck...

To: jeffbas who wrote (25096)	12/13/1997 8:59:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Hi jeffrey bash; Regarding your comment: I just don't like driving down the investment road looking in the rear view mirror for such things - I am too likely to hit a tree. It seems this is in direct contradiction to your (brief) analysis of TXN on the same post: whether TXN should be sold at today's closing price (down 42% from the high). By the way, I posted about 30 long detailed fundamental analyses of TXN on their thread while I made money by holding puts on it not terribly long ago. Looking at recent prices is the investing equivalent of driving using your rear-view mirror. I would say that looking at the distant past is more like using a compass. :) Fact is, nobody has a clear windshield in the road-race of investment. Metaphorically yours, -- Carl

To: jeffbas who wrote (25096)	12/15/1997 1:45:00 PM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

JB: Sorry for the delayed reply. You also make some accurate and important points. I agree with you that the juniors have been whacked hard and that the damage done already is significant among the more established tech stocks. I guess it comes down to how far they will have to fall to reestablish acceptable value. Also, when the rise is not based on decent fundamentals, the fall is also frequently overdone. I also appreciate your point about becoming too pessimistic. That is a legitimate consideration, as everybody in the PC/semi sector in the field is extremely down in the dumps. Usually when the whole world is down on a stock sector, as you imply, it may be time to start looking at buying them. Personally, I think the fall todate doesn't come close (yet) to discounting the deteriorating business conditions. With respect to TXN, while it isn't on my top twenty hit parade, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend the short. (g). The TXN run-up was not based on any fundamentals that I've been able to discern, so one has to expect that to be snipped off just for starters. I'd take the other side and say, what can an investor discern in that company's business that will allow it to stay overpriced, when the whole sector (semis) experiences the worst pricing environment and glut conditions experienced in many years. Anyway, I appreciate your comments and look forward to further dialogue. It's the interchange that keeps us all thinking. Best, Earlie