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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (53953)	5/28/2014 12:17:49 PM
From: Keith J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

Agreed; I also get the impression many of his picks are micro-cap which would: 1 - limit the amount that others could invest in the same picks. 2 - provide an avenue for pumping on message boards to drive volume (and price) in these micro-cap names. FWIW. KJ

To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (53953)	5/28/2014 12:43:06 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78523

From those picks I have followed, many have "Fat Tail" event outcomes. ...a probability distribution whose outcomes are represented as thick ends or "tails" that form towards the edges of a distribution curve, indicating an irregularly high likelihood of a catastrophic event... One I owned was Orchard Supply that I was lucky to sell (three days after I bought) eventually went BK and Lowes picked up the real estate pieces on the cheap. The story was good but coming out of the shoot, the original IPO just carried too much debt. Even buying in at the 50% discount price point, the stock was doomed to fail. Phibro Animal Health Corporation (PAHC) was one mentioned 5/20/2014 on the Investor Village board. It is a recent IPO but has a limited history and still reflects expenses from going public so it's hard for me to determine the underlining value(s) using many of the traditional valuation metrics. I do like the sector (organic animal feed) and the story behind future growth. Some of the analysts have a forward PE of 12. When compared to Zoetis Inc. (ZTS) (a supplier of animal vaccines & drugs w/ a PE of 29), may/could provide a better (& healthier) investment. I have PAHC on my watch list and continue to research the company and their acquisitions. Maybe after another quarter, the one time expenses will be over and I can get a better view of how profitable their current operations are. For me, I like the story and the forward PE of 12 represents a reasonable value. I doubt this name will have a "Fat Tail" outcome. EKS