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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kai-Uwe who wrote (11162)	12/13/1997 1:03:00 PM
From: Harry Landsiedel	Respond to of 97611

Kai-Uwe. Re: CPQ's inventories and Oppenheimer. An interesting POV. However, Pfeiffer and Mason have stated that they are comfortable with the Wall St consensus. At that time the figure was .82. I doubt they would have said that without having the #'s in the bag. I think analysts I've read are overfocussed on the sub0 computers and Asia and missing the bounce back in Europe that Mason talked about and big server sales. So I'm personally not concerned about 4Q. I have no way of judging the comments about inventory. If they are running higher than expected, we should see some more price cuts in the next few weeks to move it through. HL

To: Kai-Uwe who wrote (11162)	12/13/1997 3:07:00 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 97611

Kai-Uwe, this commentary seems muddle-headed. It lumps Compaq in with the margin squeeze of the disk-drive makers, when Compaq is a buyer of disk-drives, and benefits from lower component costs. It assumes that the Asia turmoil will hurt Compaq's sales (when Compaq has stated that only 6% of sales come from SEA), while ignoring its effect on component prices. Also, they are drawing major conclusions about Compaq's inventory levels based solely on MicroAge's inventory 3 weeks before Christmas. >>CPQ: Inventory Issue Looms as Larger Investor Issue after MicroAge Commentary >>04:50pm EST 11-Dec-97 CIBC Oppenheimer (James Poyner ) >>... >>The bottom line is this: At $0.80, we are slightly below consensus on our >>estimate in 4Q for Compaq. The reasons for this include this lack of inventory >>progress thus far thus negates upside bias if inventory reserves ultimately >>rise, the nightmare inventory levels in the disk-drive business that in the >>past have pointed toward increased margin pressure for PC manufacturers in >>general, the slowing in the notebook segment in particular, and the Asia/Japan >>turmoil that on the margin doesn't help any vendor on the upside.