Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: toothdock who wrote (4312)	12/13/1997 10:33:00 AM
From: LastShadow	Respond to of 120523

Tech Stocks I don't think we are in a recession either. The whole area of technology - communications, computerization, information, and all the related elements are an integral and substantial influence on our lives. In the makret however, they are probably about 5% of the total financial base, the most widely followed, and the most overvalued. So when recessionary pressure hit, the tech stocks fall the farthest because they are the hightest priced for their respective fundamental criteria. I need to caution the readers of this thread when I make a generalized statement about a particular sector - say Oil, that should never be construed that the sub-industries, or more importantly specific stocks are not good values or worht considering. Small caps have taken a beating all year, and I don't see much in that area either, but even so my most profitable trade (percentage-wise) was with a 25 cent ticker that went to 3.50 in a week. PreHoiliday Effect information is presented to provide an informational base. Thanksgiving was discussed as one of the least significant pre-holiday trading periods. Even though that held true again this year, it also doesn't do much for anyone in terms of picking a stock. It may help in looking for a time to enter or sell, but even that would be specific to the stock. Similarly, knowing when the few triple witching days occur during the year may not do any more than provide a plausible explanation why one's stocks went south that week. Nevertheless, it can't hurt to know those things, and after enough information is floating around your head, one can begin to capture an awarenss of the influences that may moderate one's trading. I forget lots of things and have to go back and figure out why something didn't happen. It isn't a fun experience, but if I make enough mistakes I figure on rare occasion I might actually be right - although when I am right, I usually ascribe it to a combination of bioth known and other factors I missed. In this game, hindsight is never 20-20. At any rate, I've made my career from technology and advancing it, and will always do so. So, yes, its intrinsic to western society. But in every recession, they will always be the most beaten up. And that's something I do lay money on...or rather off... Have a safe weekend gang and remember to take time out from your shopping and decorating and driving around to find some peace in their for yourself. lastshadow

To: toothdock who wrote (4312)	12/13/1997 10:57:00 AM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 120523

Undervalues vs Overvalued Since I have some free time this morning, I thought I would wax poetic on the use of those two terms. I rarely use them, and when I do its probably because I failed to think of what I really meant to say. markets ascribe their own value to an equity, and that is a mass concensus. Hard number like book value, quick assts ratios, even P/E are easy to calculate an on occasion have some meaning to a companies worth. But in reality, stocks value is determined by millions of people andd what they will pay for it at a given time. Whether its actually worth what one pays for it is almost immaterial. In trading one looks to find those that have near term potential for price share increase (or decrease if one shorts). There are a lot of comapnies that are undervalued whose price willl remain low for reasons that have nothing to do with our perspectives. And in the end, that is not what makes us see a company's stock as being viable for accumulation. What drives just about everyone is the beilif, prediction, forecast that their investment, for whatever term, will grow. I've bought tickers that were worthless in terms of being overvalued because I felt they could be profitable trades. I've also bought what I thought were 'undervalued' stocks to see the mass opinion of the mm's/traders/private sector vote against me and sent it further down. That is one of the best reasons to use stops. We can't time markets, and no one accurately predicts market movements right every time. The best we can do is look at the fundamentals, the products/services it provides, and finally the trading patterns for a day or week or year or decad. Then we guess - we look at the company and assess whether its one that can reasonably be thought to advance in price. I respect eveyone's statment when they say that a company is presently undervalued. What I do with that information is go look and see if the market is starting to accumulate it or if its flat. After all, no matter how 'right' an individual's assessment may be, the whole market gets to vote. Being a deomocratic system there is, the most votes win. Of course, like Chicago in the old days, some vote more often than others...multiple large block buys or sells are worth watching. lastshadow