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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cymeed who wrote (11504)	12/13/1997 9:51:00 AM
From: TideGlider	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

I believe it was Mason that first posted the BTB of SEMIs and did state that it did not bode well for the whole sector. However, that being said it is always the uprgrades and downgrades that move the stocks. It doesn't matter the how bright or informed an analyst may or may not be. Their motives also don't matter. The only thing that does matter is what the analysts recommend. A shame, but that is how things work now. If an analyst were to pound the table a give a believable account of why CYMI is a great buy, it certainly would go through the roof. Timing an analyst is the same as timing the market. One and the same. I won't say that it can't be done, however I have lost plenty attempting to time the market for CYMI. One must consider the short positions of a house would have a very controlling affect on the release of an upgrade. Of course the reverse would apply to a downgrade. We have seen plenty of those. Just thoughts Bruce

To: Cymeed who wrote (11504)	12/13/1997 12:44:00 PM
From: blankmind	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

(sorry for some good news. this is from the asnd thread). Investor's Business Daily, Dec 15, 1997 Technology Value Gets Caught in Sell-Off but Managers Holding on, saying many picks are oversold What do managers do when the market is killing their favourite stocks? In the case of Kevin Landis and Ken Kam, they start two new funds: Technology Leaders and Medical Specialists. The Flagship Technology Value Fund wowed the fund world with 60% gains in 95 and '96. Those performances helped the fund attain an IBD grade of A+ for its 36-month return of 216%, the highest of all funds. But the funds holdings have been decimated by two waves of tech sell offs. One in October and the other last week. The funds fell more than 8% last week and is off 24% from its 97 high reached Aug 5. Among this fund's big holdings are chip-gear firms Cymer and Integrated Process Equipment. Top holdings of the 40-stock fund on Nov. 30 were Altera at 10% of assets. Integrated, Medtronic, Technology Modelling, Cisco, PMC-Sierra, Anadigics, Ascend Communications 3%, Texas Instruments and Immunex.

To: Cymeed who wrote (11504)	12/14/1997 10:50:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 25960

<<Mason, would you please summarize the "problems" of Cymi has at this junction as much as you can see, no matter how persmistic it may sound.>> 1. An apparent lack of candor from management at Cymer and several stepper fabs about possible downsides, use of Komatsu lasers, and equipment failures/problems. They've lost a lot of faith. 2. Inability of stepper manufacturers to manufacture steppers ("steppers" meaning all DUV photolith, including step-and-scan) as fast as announced, because of technical problems. 3. Increasing possibility of future push-outs of stepper orders in Asia due to inability to get financing. 4. Increasing competition from Komatsu, and as time goes by, increasing possibility of competition from Coherent. 5. Uncertainty about the effective life of DUV technology (such as IBM's x-ray fab). The industry slowdown (or slower growth than anticipated) is doubly harmful to Cymer. Not only does it hurt quarterly earnings, but the longer it takes to get DUV steppers in place, the more the other negative factors come into play. If this goes on long enough, one could imagine firms starting to lower DUV orders, saving their capital for one of the technologies which use non-light sources and therefore won't be increasingly difficult at sub-.18um sizes (and impossible, or nearly impossible, at .10um). One could easily imaging what would happen if there were an announcement of a big breakthrough in masking technology. If the chipmakers think x-ray will be practical two years from now, they would almost certainly cut orders for DUV equipment.