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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (11352)	12/13/1997 1:27:00 PM
From: bob s	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

Mohan-Saying you've been largely right about the hitech slump is kind of obvious but how do you feel about Adobe in the mid 30's or Diamond Multimedia under 10? If you follow these your thoughts would be appreciated. Bob

To: Cynic 2005 who wrote (11352)	12/13/1997 7:42:00 PM
From: DHL	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18056

What are the possible scenarios? Mohan et al: I have been lurking on this forum for a couple of months. The postings that I've read let me wake up from the hypnotic dream of "buy and hold" and "buy on the dips". Now I'm wondering (like most people) how things will play out over the next few months/years. We're seeing a lot more articles in the mainstream press (i.e. WSJ) about the seriousness of the Asian situation. However, most of the articles seem to discount the effects on our economy. Here are some observations - I'd be interested in hearing what others think: 1) Many folks are talking about how it's only a matter of months before the S. Korean economy turns around. They point out the discipline and work ethic of the Korean people. I agree that they possess those qualities. However, in an era of overcapacity and glut, more production will only exacerbate the basic problems. 2) The S. Koreans represent serious competition for the Japanese in the area of steel and shipbuilding, to name a couple. Will the Japanese government "allow" the yen to continue to devalue so that they can compete more effectively? 3) If the Fed (A.G.) is increasing the money supply to prevent a liquidity crisis, at what point will that cause the dollar to lose value and force the Fed to increase interest rates to defend it? Will that even happen? Is it possible that the additional liquidity provided by the Fed and the BOJ could worsen the dangers by causing further currency devaluations? 4) We've read that the Japanese won't sell U.S. Treasury bonds because they are increasing in value because of the declining yen. If that's true, is there a possibility that Japanese banks might sell U.S. equities out of concern about the U.S. market? 5) In what possible scenario could the derivatives market play a role in a market meltdown? Is there serious risk that such a breakdown could take place or could/would the central banks of the G7 nations have the resources, intelligence, and fortitude to ameliorate such an event. 6) Some people think that these events will be overcome in 12 - 18 months. Such thinking seems very optimistic to me because the problems seem so systemic? Any guesses as to when/if events will reach "critical mass"? What do you think?