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To: gmccon who wrote (6381)	12/13/1997 2:12:00 PM
From: dougjn	Respond to of 152472

From what I've been able to tell, there were in reality very mixed feelings in South Korea about reunion w/the North. I imagine that is much more the case now. S. Koreans would love to loose the threat, but don't want to have to bear the burden at any particular time in the immediate future. So its a good thing to work for eventually.....And of course they always wanted American to pay much of the freight. (Which I think there is very little chance of. The example of Germany will indeed be cited in Congress.) I admit however to not having a good sense of the degree to which a sense of ethnic/cultural kinship w/the North may overcome these realpolitic considerations. Strongly suspect that what the South will want is peace treaty, normalized relations, investment in the North allowed, but without any immediately committed unification or heavy subsidy requirements. North will want subsidies as "price" for peace. All eyes will shift to the US. I think there would be rather massive opposition in Congress and among the public to significant US subsidies. N. Korea will eventually settle for rather little. Since opening up will only do them good. Polical leadership will try to follow Chinese model. Doug