To: Venkie who wrote (25019 ) 12/13/1997 2:52:00 PM From: McNabb Brothers Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 176387
Venkie, First of all I would not be a buyer of any high tech stock at this time except a small company called BROC which I'm playing as a turn around situation! Things are beginning to come together as I suspected way back in Aug.! I did not see the Asian flu or crisis coming, but I thought the bull market was going to end, for we have been in one for 15 years plus with the exception of a quick pull back in 87 and then a small bear market in 1990! Most investors including mutual fund managers have never been through a true bear market including me, but I have study enough as to know what one can do to people if we do have one! Something always triggers a bear market and I guess it may well be the Asian flu or what ever you want to call it! Venkie, in a bear market you will see companies selling for 4, 5, and 6 times earnings and some companies will go from making big money to negative earnings! Where would DELL be at a 4 or 5 or 6 times earnings? I'm not trying to scare anyone, but always remember it can happen and I'm predicting it will happen sooner than later! My biggest fear right now is deflation and if you do not understand what that can do to the economy I would recommend you read up on it quick in case it does happen! I'm staying with my blue chip companies that tend to sell things even in bad times such as HD, WMT, MRK, HB, MCD, MO, XON, and STEI! And I will continue to sell short companies with extreme valuations such as YHOO, AOL, AMZN, VIAS, and ZITL which I covered last week, but have started selling again since I have given up on much of a year end rally! Other shorts include DELL, RMBS, CTXS, and PSFT! Venkie, the reason I do not hold any high tech stocks in more core holdings is because I can not predict long term trends in the high tech sector! MSFT and INTC are two of the best, but most other companies have too much price competition and can be up rooted by someone else that may come out with a better mouse trap! Way too much change and too fast for me in the high teck sector! The only tech stock I own is a small software firm that I mentioned above which I have bought on the recommendation of my good friend Roger Babb, but I do not intend to keep it long term! I like to buy stocks for the long term and not have to keep up with them much! Where as my short term trading stocks I put in many hours studing as to what my next moves will be since I keep up with them on a daily basis! One other item for thought is the article that came out late Fri. on DELL not having pricing advantage over the other box makers as it did! I know I know there are two sides to every story, but to me this looks like the first real story about DELL that is on the other side! I bet it won't be the last either! Good luck to you and I hope this helps explain my veiw points on the markets in general! Hank