Warning to GOP: A new poll says you can kiss the presidency goodbye for 10 more long years: Why? “Voters have little tolerance for a presidential candidate in 2016 who doesn’t believe that climate change is caused by human activity.” More on that below. But that means the GOP is destined to be on the outside of the White House for 10 more years, playing by the same total-defense playbook that didn’t work the last two presidential elections.
Bloomberg
Only 38% of Americans would support a climate-science denier in a presidential bid, a new poll shows.
Why? You can’t blame the tea party. Nor voter suppression and self-defeating immigration policies. Not minimum wages, debt, taxes, abortion, gun laws, pipelines nor same-sex marriage. Not health care, inequality nor the weak recovery. Not even rapidly shifting demographics. Yes, these trends will increase your handicap, radically changing the GOP’s next-generation base. But that’s not why the GOP won’t win back the presidency.
And what about taking back the Senate? Don’t cheer too loudly. That advantage won’t last long. More defensive battles fighting an incumbent president with veto power. Bad for the image. And then, in 2016, not only the presidency is up from grabs, 23 GOP senators and only 10 Dems are up for re-election.
It gets worse: From now till the 2014 elections, the GOP will double down with the same hard-right strategy that plays well to a conservative base. But then from 2014 to 2016 you must shift to a center-left strategy to appeal to the emerging new American voter if you want to win over a national fan base for 2016. But that doubling-down also puts the GOP in a double-bind: By 2016, any left-leaning candidate will anger the hard-right base that wins back the Senate in 2014. A huge dilemma.
GOP’S biggest problem 2014-2024? The one and only ... Big OilYes, Big Oil will be the GOP’s biggest problem for years. And the big reason the GOP can kiss the presidency goodbye. Why? Big Oil won’t change. For one, they’ll fight any carbon tax. But to win the presidency, the GOP must change. A classic double bind. That’s why no Republican will occupy the White House likely till 2024. One reason: Big Oil, ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and, of course, the Koch billionaires.
Yes, the GOP’s in love with Big Oil. The money keeps them in Washington. They’re mutually dependent, addict-and-supplier, obsessed-and-object, master-and-servant, trapped in a symbiotic dance of death. So blindly dependent they can’t see, cannot break free of their dependency. One has the money and power, needs to manipulate the law. The other craves money, status and an illusion of power. A classic dependency syndrome. Both hold tight, won’t wake up, till it's too late after they bottom-out, trigger a collapse, like 2000 and 2008, that takes down the economy, forces them to create a new business model, new political game strategy.
Unfortunately, the collapse will be traumatic, painful, not only for Big Oil, the GOP, also a million car owners, and the world economy.
So for years to come, the so-called “Party of Big Business” will keep losing the presidency because their Big Oil suppliers control the GOP votes, dictate how to vote, and when the GOP gets its fix. But for now, Big Oil’s game plan is profitable: A pittance to politicians yields billions in tax breaks, favorable regulations, a fabulous return on investment for Big Oil.
Voters slowly waking up, see deniers as puppets selling snake oilYes, compared to the profit potential, the payoff to Big Oil is enormous, so they are forced to keep playing this game using the same old model, to keep a steady flow of quarterly earnings, executive bonuses, new reserves, refinery humming, tankers full, pipelines flowing, gas stations supplied.
But unfortunately Big Oil and its dependent politicians in the GOP are now on the wrong side of history when it comes to global warming and climate change. But both remain intransigent, no compromise, clutching to the old playbook, blind to how the sands of history are shifting under their outdated business model.
Sounds too harsh? The blunt truth always is: Today it’s obvious that our elected GOP politicians, the used-to-be “Party of Big Business,” really has descended into a sad dependency role, as pawns, puppets, lackeys, lapdogs.
Money is destroying American democracy, especially the Grand Old Party. Today they are totally dependent on Big Oil, groveling. GOP votes on whatever Big Oil lobbyists demand. The GOP has lost its pride, its moral courage to do what’s right, lost its independent thinkers. They need a new Bill Buckley. But till they get one ... kiss the presidency bye-bye for 10 more years.
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