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To: Stock Puppy who wrote (170671)6/9/2014 3:37:58 PM
From: Ryan Bartholomew  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 213173
 
Psychologically is what matters since it influences human reaction.
Sure it matters in the short run, but earnings ultimately trump over time. If everyone was convinced that APPL was going to double earnings this year, of course it would shoot up even if there was no rational basis for the belief. But when earnings were actually known, if the belief didn't come true, it would adjust accordingly. So you can make an argument that irrational people will buy a stock at a lower price even through there's no difference in value after the split, and this psychology will drive the price up, but at best that's a temporary phenomena. I have yet to run into someone who invests less than $650 in a particular position, and while I know a few exist, I doubt they're very prevalent compared to the overall trade volume.



To: Stock Puppy who wrote (170671)6/9/2014 4:17:54 PM
From: Zen Dollar Round2 Recommendations

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HerbVic
Stock Puppy

  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 213173
 
Given that the stock market is, for a large part, psychological

That's all it is. The stock market is a very large mass psychology experiment.

Yes, there is a lot of programmed trading out there – and all of those programs were created by humans. It does not change the mass psychology aspect of the market. Computers have not reached self-awareness yet, they are not sentient beings like humans, so the "decisions" they make still apply to this theory.

I'd argue that TA works for the very same reason – simply because so many people follow it and it has been around for a very long time, not because there are inherent patterns in stock charts.

Many will, no doubt, argue with this. It's what I believe and I'll be sticking to it.

I sense I've just opened a huge can of worms. :-)