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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Trader who wrote (1774)	12/15/1997 9:29:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Respond to of 5676

Hi TT, Early on this thread I have developed two alternate scenarios for the market. The first was the rational scenario, in which the top was in Aug. and as soon as the SPX 900 level is broken, the bear was supposed to carry the market back to Dow 4500, wringing out the excesses by taking back all the gains of the three years bull. This scenario was supposed to unfold in the time frame of Sep. (SPX 897 - the decision point - was reached in the last trading day of Aug) to Oct., an ample time from the top. >>Do you mean that because the decline you were expecting did not occur -- the window in effect closed?>> Yes. Since the SPX has reached new highs in early Oct., I considered scenario a null and void, and turned to scenario b. >>Presumably this is the same concept then -- in which case do you see the market rallying into January - April time-frame and then a decline of some magnitude.>> Yes, it is the same concept. Scenario b called for: 1. Touching the 200 DMA 2. Another steep and final run to new highs and then 3. The Millennium Crash, early next year, from Dow 9200+ to 4000 and under (but not under Dow 800 so I disagree with Pretcher...). >>If so, what determines these windows, the lengths and the time-frames??>> Pattern recognition on long term charts. >> I get the impression that you think that a major top is set to occur in the Jan -April time-frame--am I right??>> The outside interference from SEA did bring the Dow to the 200 DMA in Oct. Later we had a BIG reversal and the SPX (barely) reached a new high. That was in line with scenario b. The recent tech crash wasn't. The NDX chart looks bad. An up correction, if any, is limited IMO to 1040-1060 range, a far cry from the 1150 high in Oct. Can the divergence between the SPX and the NDX go on? Can KO GE and PG ignore a 1% reduction in '98 world growth? If the answer is yes on both, then we'll see another one two rallies like the one that took us from 900 to 980 on the SPX in 16 days, and a '29 size crash. ATG