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To: Dennis Roth who wrote (184368)	6/11/2014 1:11:07 PM
From: Dennis Roth	1 Recommendation Recommended By evestor Respond to of 206121

North American refiners beating European profits by $6 per barrel Posted on June 10, 2014 fuelfix.com

To: Dennis Roth who wrote (184368)	6/12/2014 8:03:07 AM
From: Dennis Roth	3 Recommendations Recommended By evestor LoneClone saintsinnerido Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206121

PetroChina (0857.HK), Sinopec (0386.HK), Drilling Dilolo, US Independent Refiners PetroChina (0857.HK) Increasing Earnings Estimates with Oil Price Assumptions 2 June 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com Sinopec (0386.HK) Cutting Estimates on Expected-Weak 2Q14 Result, But Upside in Marketing Sell-Down Is Substantial 12 June 2014 ¦ 14 pages ir.citi.com Oil Insights — Pre-salt Angola – Drilling Dilolo 11 June 2014 ¦ 13 pages ir.citi.com The Stena Carron rig is on location to drill the Dilolo prospect targeting the pre- salt potential in the southern Kwanza Basin offshore Angola. The Dilolo structure is the largest structure to have been mapped across the Kwanza Basin and looks of a similar size to the pre-salt Brazil discoveries. We conservatively assume a gross unrisked prospect size of 2bn bbls for Dilolo. However, Genel Energy, which recently farmed into Block 39, has suggested that the Dilolo structure could hold as much as 6bn bbls. If this higher resource potential is firmed up on Dilolo, Genel’s pre-salt Angola position could be worth up to 500p/share unrisked (or c. 50% of its current market cap). Statoil (operator) and Total are also exposed to this well. The geological risks (reservoir/seal) for Dilolo have been de- risked by recent discoveries nearby by Cobalt and Maersk, but the key risk remains hydrocarbon type (oil/gas). US Independent Refiners Now Is the Summer of Our Discontent 12 June 2014 sendspace.com Bottom Line: Back in May, we noted that the start of 2Q looked strong enough to suggest an improvement in profits vs 1Q, even if the US refiners would struggle to meet the wild bull forecasts for 2014 earnings. We worried that the “US is still linked to global crude markets” and “a summer crude price spike could dent 3Q refiner profits”. The risks to the tail end of 2Q and for 3Q earnings have increased meaningfully since that report.