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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bradpalm1 who wrote (3600)	12/13/1997 4:56:00 PM
From: James Baker	Respond to of 23519

Nice post Brad. I for one am glad to heard that you think Vivus is a good buy at these levels. But tell me <<Perhaps management has learned a lesson here and recent events were errors of commission, not omission. I certainly hope so. Bradpalm1>> Why would errors of commission by better than omission here? And whom did they committed that made these errors? Jim

To: Bradpalm1 who wrote (3600)	12/13/1997 6:00:00 PM
From: BigKNY3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Brad << Perhaps management has learned a lesson here and recent events were errors of commission, not omission. I certainly hope so.>> Brad, Good post! However, you should continue to question VVUS' management. VVUS may have a good product, but VVUS management has not shown the ability to manage it. I would not want to trust my hard earned money with managers who are forced to expand capacity by reducing capacity... with the explanation that their staff is overworked. A competent management would have had production and staff in place going 24 hours a day. Investing in companies in which top "management is still learning" could be dangerous to your portfolio account. BigKNY3

To: Bradpalm1 who wrote (3600)	12/14/1997 12:40:00 AM
From: Mitchell D. Wilcox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Bradpalm, For the sake of others I'll keep this short. Your posts #165, #266, #433, #448, #559 and #728 will give other posters an idea of just how chummy you have been in the past with the MUSE product. Just a couple of quotes, #559 "I may be short on MUSE but long on VVUS", didn't you say that was the other way around? #728 "As I've also said, Vivus is a great short term play as long as Vinik sticks around. Once he bails out , however, Vivus will crumble like a house of cards. The simple reason...Muse just isn't that good of a product, regardless of all the hype you hear here. Unless you think that a patented transurethral delivery system will continue to rock the urological world, you're barking up the wrong tree". Now after telling TA how stupid he is over and over don't tell me that you're going to buddy up with him too. I don't have a problem with anyone who changes their position with an investment, we all know that TA has done this at least a few times. The only difference is that he gives everyone a clear reason when he moves and his opinion of the product doesn't change 100% when he either buys or sells. Sorry to those who think I've been nit-picky here, I just had to get this off my chest. Done...now I'll go back to my slumber. Good Luck and Happy Investing! Mitch

To: Bradpalm1 who wrote (3600)	12/15/1997 11:01:00 AM
From: MissLil	Respond to of 23519

This is a perspective from a person with both medical and investing background. Most of this is old news, but to rehash: The information from clinicians who deal with Muse in practice and who say it is effective is important. Sometimes products that look good in studies just don't work. I worked as an internist for several years and have subsequently done research, worked briefly for the FDA (in another field). I have invested for over 10 years and done significantly better than the market. My investment opinion about this stock is that it is a steal at present prices and I'm planning to buy more. The caveat is only if there are unknown problems with this product that I haven't heard about. This is where specialists in this field can be helpful. Sooner or later that plant will get running. The market is there (based on my personal medical experience). Probably a lot of men will eventually use this product, even if they don't really need it. I don't support that but that's reality (Look at the 110 lb women using fen/phen). Listened to most of the conference call until I fell asleep. I've seen from a distance some of the problems that even established companies have getting a new product line going. Every process has to be verified. There have to be sterility and stability checks that would astound a normal person (but isn't this what you want for a drug put into one's body?). So the conference call discussion of that ran true to me. If they really started designing the plant in January and building in May, that is an impressive timetable. From a business standpoint, marketing is a tricky business. I'm not sure how likely men are to discuss this problem with eachother and actually admit that they are using the product. Another issue for the clinicians. Maybe it should be marketed to women (who will discuss it). Anyway, the point is that it may take a while to build up demand. Since most primary care physicians are not aware of the product (to my knowledge), this may be another issue. Advertising in the MD version of Time Magazine or something similar might help. Having had my disagreements with analysts in the past (AMGEN, AOL, etc.) I don't put much store in what the analysts say about this one. They are obsessing about a temporary plant shutdown, is there really demand, will a pill that affects a person's whole body overrun this product (that's already out there, approved by the FDA, and works). Their concerns are legitimate but also show their lack of understanding of the pharmaceutical industry. If you have any significant money invested in this product, you need to read the original New England Journal of Medicine article that came out in January of last year. The data in that article were impressive. The criteria for success (as I recall, this is based on reading the article one year ago) was successful intercourse. Although not everyone was successful by this criterion, a fair number of patients expressed satisfaction with the product even if they weren't "successful." (Makes one wonder). A high percentage of subjects finished the study. The side effects seemed tolerable. I bought Vivus after reading this article and my interpretation was that the patients loved this product. That being said, the stock will probably stay down for a while. This is not a stock to use to pay your daily expenses. The everyday investor and the institutions are going to rely on the analysts opinion, which will express concern about the ability of Vivus to produce enough product and possible competition from other products (there's enough business for more than one product). So I think one might be able to put in a buy-limit order at 11.5 or so and eventually get the stock. It's so low now, I can't see the point in selling unless you really need the money. You won't get anything for it now and there isn't much further downside potential. I would guess that a reasonable price for this stock within the next year would be in the 40s, but with this kind of stock, reason does not always prevail so it could be significantly higher or lower. The ability of this company to produce a profit is much more predictable that anyone's ability to predict what the analysts are going to say about it. To new investors, or those inexperienced with young stocks: Read the financials, the NEJM, talk to anyone knowledgeable in this field and then make your own decision and be willing to stick by it. I believe that sooner or later an investment here will work out, but who knows when. But don't believe me. Make your own decision. Just because the stock went down doesn't mean you were wrong to buy it. The analysts are often wrong and they have other restraints (e.g will this stock ruin the annual earnings on my mutual fund). But if a company makes money, and the market is there, sooner or later the stock price catches up.