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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ccryder who wrote (2083)	12/14/1997 2:59:00 AM
From: Trader Ric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6317

Two days to the acid test! So far Fenton has been right.. shortly we will see if he has been right for the right reasons. Hindsight tells me this last quarter was forseeable. Sadly I have see it mostly out the rear view mirror. Ever since Hong Kong crashed the perception ripples have spread slowly down the pipeline. First were the obvious candidates Mutual Funds and Stocks centered in SE Asia. Tech stocks based in the USA got hit with a broad brush of pessimism that grew with each missed Steet estimate and negative announcement, added to the bad October Timing, and Cnbc special on the 87 crash. After Boxmakers and other companies that make the final product began to show some losses the ripples continued Up stream to HDD, modem and other component makers. If one showed or claimed to be affected By SE Asia the whole sector got nailed. Lately the ECM biz has been reached. Certainly some parts of it have been affected negatively, perhaps one bet wrong on currency... in any case this sector was all going down when the ripples reached it. What I have learned from this Quarter is that in a high flying market that had been buying on every dip, a real problem can be magnified. The natural instincts of the media, the MM and analysts, and even CEO's who in some instances are blaming "Asia" for shortfalls barely related to the region to cover their own _sses. What I naively thought before was that the analysts would ferret out the exceptions and we would hear more about unaffected companies and investors would be steered to the better stocks. NOT!!! So far few companies have come out with stellar news. I expect many success stories in the next six weeks, but any company that has a competitor in recent trouble is going to be viewed as guilty until proven innocent. With hindsight the evidence was there since early November at least. This bear market will continue only a little longer until some god news begins to force it the other way and then look for the slingshot effect. If Jabil even meets $.48 and doesn't announce lower estimates, It has passed the acid test. The bulls wil be vindicated. If it has problems with A/R, Earnings, Lost orders etc, then Fenton was right and it wasn't luck. Patroler and others, including me, should give Fenton some deserved respect. On the other hand, if as I believe, Jabil meets or beats and doesn't lower earnings Fenton should admit to sucking out because he never claimed jabil was going down because the perception tide was going out, but because of fundamental reasons, Korean competition, A/R, etc. So stay tuned The winner of the Frasier/Ali...I mean Fenton/Patroler match is ..................... Trader Ric Ps I think I have the same brokerage group as patroler, we live near each other and I heard the same story about T Sansone returning Beth Wolters phone call. Substance of the call was similar to what Patroler reported.