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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13233)	12/13/1997 7:29:00 PM
From: davesd	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob....it looks like the technology boom of the past years is shifting into low gear...almost all the major areas of technology are experiencing a slowdown. Merced is just another chip like the PII...I see no reason why you think the Merced chip will create any new significant markets that will kick start the technology sector....and hence the semi industry. INTC is having enough problems trying to convience the world that they need the PII chip. I heard from a source that Samsung has stopped recieving any new tools and that other Korean companies maybe doing the same. The currency issue and the country's instability has made it very diffcult for them to raise cash. I think this will bleed into the other countries in the region in 1998. The overcapacity is real and the demand for chips is slowing due to the slowdown in technology growth. 1998 is going to be as bad or worse than 1996....I expect to see AMAT in the teens in the next few months. I think there is going to be very limited amout of $$$$ spent on 200mm .25u in 1998....I think that fabs will put off any new big purchases till 1999 or 2000 when 300mm tools are available. I see a very bleak picture for the industry in 1998 with a turnaround in 1999. In my opinion 1999 LEAPS over $30 will expire worthless. dave

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13233)	12/14/1997 3:28:00 AM
From: Tom B	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Regarding the bottom, I don't think we're there yet. Buying-in at this point is like catching a falling knife. So many investors have taken a beating on AMAT lately that I would expect to see a basing stage that lasts several weeks, at least. Valuations are tempting however, and I wouldn't want to linger too long at the station before the train leaves. Tom Brimacombe

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13233)	12/14/1997 12:29:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

How long will the flat bottom last? At least two months, till the next earnings report. And if general uncertainty persists, a good quarterly report will only keep the stock price level. Jacob, I see it as futile trying to say where the stock price will be in 2-6 months at this point. All I can say is I believe it will be significantly higher. Worldwide Chip Sales for October were at a record, yet the popular press makes no mention of that. Sentiment at this point is decidely BEARISH. I am surprised the Dow is trading where it is even with the decline we have seem in the NAZ. We are clearly(in my mind at least) in OVERSOLD territory in the equips. By the same token, we were in OVERBOUGHT territory in August yet I was foolish for not wanting to part with my AMAT stock. IMHO, fair value for AMAT and others the ine equip group are somewhere in between the August and Dec. values and we will approach these levels once people realize AMAT is not a Korean comapny; it realizes only 8% of its sales from that country and even a Korea collapse should not impact AMAT as much the price has taken into account these past 2 months. This group is notorious for their volatility because of the equipment spending slowdown that occurs every 4-5 years. We are only in the first qtrs of the newest recovery and already people are running for the exits. If in fact, we are headed for another downturn, this would be the shortest recovery in semiconductor history. Just another tidbit. I checked the prices of the equips for price chagnge YTD. Most are down for the year with AMAT one of the notable exceptions. We are one year closer to 300mm and .18m and the fools on WS are pricing them lower even than at the start of the year. My only regret is that I cannot take advantage of this; I am trying to cover my margin calls. Hopefully the next time I will have some powder dry for these tremendous opportunities. You don't lose 60k and not take some lessons away :-(( Regards, Brian

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (13233)	12/14/1997 4:34:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, I would save your post, if I were you. When we look back on this time in 3-4 years, I would not be surprised if your guess was absolutely correct. With time to reflect this weekend,I'm now hoping, even with a large current position, that we have a further, nauseating drop like the summer of 1996. The potential bottom appears to be between 14-19, using a combination of average roe, 5 year lowest pe ratio,book value, and lowest ps ratio. This will be very painful for current holders. In the past year, I had frequently contemplated on my good fortune and "skill" that had allowed me to buy very near the bottom, even though I had watched amat hit 120(2 splits ago) and plunge. I had wondered what it would have been like to tolerate the whole drop. Other than selling a fair, but in retrospect not large enough piece of my position, I now know what it was like. It is interesting that if you are smart enough to buy at 12, and sell 20% at 47, and buy back at 32, and 27, and 20, you are better positioned for the next run to 50+, but you have an overall loss when your stock pulls back to 17. Oh, the woeful math of buying cyclical growth stocks! We can all see why it is easier to buy BRK, G, KO, etc. In any case, I hope this will be my last post for a long time. This will take too much discipline to do even without the additional weight of bleeding in public, even if it is temporary. As many have said, further downgrades will likely cause further drops.If it goes up from here, that would actually be unfortunate, because at 19 or lower, we will have about the same opportunity that existed in 1996. As Jacob infers, the stock could be in a range for several months, before what APPEARS to be an inevitable move up. Note the loss of coviction from my usual rants. Using BB's firm tactics, I will fire at 20 again. I will sell half of all other non equipment positions, and buy an equal amount at 17.At 14, which is about as low as it could go,I will sell all non semi positions and buy all I can, and with margin, leaving a buffer to prevent a margin call until an unlikely plunge to 10. I would not encourage anyone to employ such apparently drastic and risky tactics.The market is a risky place and anything can happen. Perhaps amat will go bankrupt. No one should invest money they cannot afford to lose. Let me add all the usual other disclaimers too. An investor or a trader could lose all there money and sometimes quickly. If Warren Buffett lives for 20 more years, you will do well investing in BRK, with much less pain than AMAT. Best of luck to all of you. Gene