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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: miraje who wrote (54162)	6/17/2014 12:55:58 PM
From: miraje	Respond to of 86355

and back to the topic of this thread.. fool.com Not Approving the Keystone XL Pipeline May be Riskier than We Thought By Matt DiLallo \| More Articles \| Save For Later June 17, 2014 \| Comments (0) The hotly contested Keystone XL pipeline that TransCanada (NYSE: TRP ) is proposing to build just took another interesting turn. An updated analysis from the Department of State now estimates that injuries and deaths caused by not approving the pipeline are four-times higher than previously thought. This revised analysis is due to the fact that the oil earmarked for the Keystone XL will end up being transported by rail. The issue is that transporting oil by rail is becoming a more explosive risk than anyone previously expected. A significant revision An initial assessment of TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline estimated that moving the oil earmarked for that pipeline by rail would contribute to 700 injuries and 92 deaths over the next 10 years. However, given the rash of rail incidents, as well as an erroneous database search, the government updated its numbers and raised estimates fourfold. Now, the State Department estimates that rail transportation could lead to 2,947 injuries and 434 deaths in the next decade. So far America has been lucky in that the recent oil train derailments haven't caused any significant injuries. The most recent derailment in Lynchburg, Virginia only resulted in 350 people being evacuated from the downtown river district near the spill. Overall, 30,000 gallons of oil spilled into the James River but the resulting explosion was far enough away that it didn't cause any harm. However, as Canada experienced last year, these trail derailments can have tragic consequences as the town of Lac-Megantic in Quebec lost 47 people after an oil train derailed and exploded in the center of town. While the State Department isn't saying such a disaster is a certainty, the possibility increases as more oil heads onto America's rail system. Ripple effect What will be interesting to see is if these revisions to the Keystone XL pipeline casualty assessment have any ripple effects within the industry. The Keystone XL pipeline isn't the only project that's being opposed by environmentalists, which is resulting in more oil heading onto North America's railways. For example, Kinder Morgan (NYSE: KMI ) and its Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (NYSE: KMP ) subsidiary are proposing to expand the Trans Mountain pipeline in Canada to triple its capacity. That project, however, has come under intense pressure as there are worries that the pipeline could leak and cause untold environmental harm. What's intriguing about the whole situation is the fact that most environmentalists oppose developing the oil sands in general because it's a more carbon intensive energy supply. The idea is that by protesting the pipelines they can impact the project economics of the oil sands to such a degree that these projects become uneconomical. However, the industry has found that rail can be economical enough that most oil sands projects are still moving forward. That's creating quite a dilemma for environmentalists as they now will need to weigh the potential environmental cost of an oil train leak in an environmentally sensitive area with the growing concern of an explosive train derailment in the center of town. Investor takeaway As more oil train disasters occur it could have a ripple effect and turn public opinion back into supporting these projects. This would enable Kinder Morgan and Kinder Energy Partners to finally move forward on the $5.4 billion Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project and even enable TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline to finally be approved. However, the hope is that just the increased risk of a tragedy is enough to move forward with these critical projects and that it doesn't take a repeat of Lac-Megantic in a small American town to get these pipelines built.

To: miraje who wrote (54162)	6/17/2014 1:09:32 PM
From: Wharf Rat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 86355

"'my ignorance is just as good as your ignorance'. Asimov" miraje "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge" Asimov "... my ignorance becomes the truth" In this case, knowledge shows your ignorance is not the truth of what was actually said.

To: miraje who wrote (54162)	6/17/2014 6:39:34 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86355

Hi miraje; Re: "Perhaps that's why this country was set up as a (now disintegrating) constitutional republic, and not a democracy (majority mob rule). Y'all."; I was thinking about this sort of thing, in the context of the collapse of Iraq and the recent electoral success of anti-immigration parties in Europe and the US. The traditional division in socialism was between international socialism (communism) and national socialism (Nazism / fascism). The two branches of socialism compete for the same voters, namely the people who want the government to provide them with money and they compete viciously for votes. But over the long run, as the economy inevitably wilts under the attack of socialism, the people inevitably vote their pocketbooks and begin to shift to the nationalist branch. And that sets up the conflict between different parts of the country. Maybe if there weren't oil revenues to divide, the Iraqi political parties wouldn't be fighting so hard against each other. In order to survive as a true multi-cultural country, it has to be a federal republic or a dictatorship. State's rights are why Switzerland is still around. When government becomes the provider of wealth, control over the government becomes an object whose control is critical to the economic survival of the ethnic groups. And eventually that fight becomes militarized and you have a civil war. Or, if you're lucky, a velvet civil war like the Czechs and the Slovaks. -- Carl