I see the H&S and how its pulling back up off the right shoulder on very good volume, there's no debate, and I do appreciate your input, ... Gold has a very similar pattern but the right shoulder on gold still seems to have some room to fill, but nothing is perfect, so it might never fully fill the right shoulder and move up without doing so, just as those recent gaps you mentioned that occurred over the past couple of weeks.
Lets not forget that several miners still have ridiculous penny gaps below that were within a rocks throw of filling, IE-MUX at $1.97/98, ... but they decided to run it higher, something Ive seen happen over the years, only to bring it back down just one more time, I hope its not the case.
Gold Bullion has put in its Double Bottom, and we've pointed that out when it dropped to the $1180ish the second time around no debate here either, ... which as you know, ... is a key event for a turning point by the way, but I dont rule out lower levels on down to the $1,200 range.
Granted that the GDX and J have turned the corner, I cant say that gold has, gold looks like it can move down one more time for a retest, ... and I hope it does, it would reinforce the notion.
The fact that it failed at the pivot leads me to believe that we could still see a third bottom, which would in fact be golds Head and Shoulder, but if it were to move well above that pivot in the next couple of days or by early next week at the latest, ... I would then have to change my opinion and start charting out the $1,315/20 area next, ... actually, ... the mid $1,290 range would be its next challenge.
Here is gold and its volume and how its handling its Inverse H&S, ... it looks like it might have one more move lower, perhaps a move in the $1,210 to $1,220 range, or at least a retest of the $1,240. The right shoulder should be a higher high, and perhaps we are already there, but it looks like we could either move sideways through the next couple of months or trail slowly lower to achieve a higher low than the double bottom.
And of course, ... an unforeseen geopolitical, or monetary event could change its direction at any given day, ... if not the hour.
Two things I am concerned about.
1. If this over-extended market sells of sharply in the next few months, like many pro's are calling for, ... we can expect most all of the stocks (independent and managed) to follow suit, ... ETFs, Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, Managed Private Funds, Index Funds, independent IRAs, ... 401-K and 403-B plans, etc, ... they will dump full baskets, and in these baskets will be some great companies of all types and from all sectors that dont deserve the trashing or further trashing, ... we saw that in the 1999/2000 sell off and also the 2008.
2. Whats about to happen to the U.S Dollar is a once in a life time event for most people and for that matter for an entire nation, and as powerful and determined this Government is in controlling and dominating world currency, ... I can see them doing what ever it takes to keep the Buck floating world wide, they've destroyed nations to do so at this point, Iraq and Libya are just two examples. If Gold gets away from them while other nations start using it as a guaranty to dominate other currencies (IE-China and Russia), ... well, ... we all might as well move to Canada, America will need time to heal.
But I hope you are right Rob, and the only direction from here is straight up.
Thank you for your thoughtful and considerate comments and views, I appreciate you. |
