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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trey McAtee who wrote (25190)	12/14/1997 1:08:00 PM
From: Ed Beers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Trey, I think that the trend toward lost cost PCs is minimizing the importance of SDRAM from a pricing standpoint. Only the high end P IIs and K6s really benefit significantly from the higher cpu-memory bandwidth. There is ample SDRAM capacity for the high end computers being built. The rest of the market is very price sensitive and won't pay significantly higher prices for SDRAM. Based on current retail pricing of 32 MByte SDRAM modules, I believe that 16 Mbit SDRAM parts are going for about $4.00. While this is better that EDO pricing, I'm sure no one with a DRAM fab thinks of it as "good". A month ago I was bearishly assuming that Micron didn't fix the test and assembly problem until the end of last quarter and didn't ramp to near 100% SDRAM until the end of last quarter. I don't think last quarters conference call prepared anyone for test and assembly problems extending through March 98. There are reports that Micron has boosted bit rate production last Q by 10%. My grossly simplified first order approximation of Micron chip productions costs says this implies that they only reduced cost by 10%. In my opinion, this is an impressive acomplishment at this phase of the 16 Mbit cycle. However, sales price declined much faster. At this point it is clear that last quarter was bad and this quarter will be worse. The real question is "Can management paint a convincing picture of a turnarond by the end of the year?"