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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (64625)	6/19/2014 5:48:47 PM
From: oldbeachlvr	Respond to of 95406

I posted the entire CS update on MU. I will look at my Schwab Research site to see if there is more detail. But I believe that I do not have access to the full reports. I would expect another short update on Tuesday giving their opinion on the MU earnings with some commentary on next quarter guidance vs CS view.

To: Sam who wrote (64625)	6/20/2014 10:00:03 AM
From: oldbeachlvr	Respond to of 95406

Sam, Here is the MU 4th Q information from Credit Suisse that you asked for. CS analysts has been bulls following MU for years I remember the crazy price targets they had 2 or 3 years ago (50% to 100% above stock price). I did good trading into and out of the stock a number of times between about 5 and 10. Never a long term buy like this time. F4Q EPS Above CS/Street. Extrapolating the current trends, we expect DRAM/NANDprices to be flat/-5% q/q versus our model at -2%/-5% q/q, leading to AugQ rev/EPS of $3.95bn (up 1.4% q/q)/$0.77, above CS at $3.81bn/$0.74 ; street is at $4.02bn/$0.72. We are modeling DRAM/NAND ASP changes of -2%/-5.4% q/q. However, based on the current market environment we expect MU to indicate flat q/q ASP in DRAM and down mid single digit NAND ASPs. Even though 3Q14 prices for PC/Server DRAM are expected to be flat to slightly up, we expect that increasing mix of longer term contracts and ASP decline in mobile DRAM could lead to DRAM pricing being flat q/q. In NAND market we expect that margins will decline q/q as MU is increasing the mix of lower margin SSDs. We are modeling DRAM/NAND bit shipment growth of +4%/+3% q/q and cost per bit decline of -4%/-8% q/q but expect that cost decline may be only -4%/flat q/q due to increasing mix of NAND. We expect non-GAAP GM of 37.3% (up 200bps q/q), due to higher ASP and lower cost per bit for both DRAM/NAND. We are modeling OpEx of $525mn (flat q/q) and FCF of $856mn vs. F3Q of $692mn based on operating CF of $1.87bn and CapEx of $999mn The current CS analyst seems to be excellent and have a very good handle on the memory market. His detail is exceptional. The full report is something like 10 pages. Or maybe it is his $50 price target that I like!