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Strategies & Market Trends : REITS - Buying 1 - 2 weeks before going ex-dividend -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johndee who wrote (532)	12/13/1997 9:20:00 PM
From: Richard Barron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2561

Johndee, CEI is probably trading at 1.6 to 1.75 times book value. VNO is even higher and EOP just bought BCN. I don't know the market caps, but I imagine they are all in excess of $5 billion except VNO which I have no idea. If Caesars is buying a REIT, I don't know what their criteria would be. I imagine FUR and HPRK would be the most interesting, since they they have the Paired-Share structure that PAH, MT and HOT also have, but are much lower market caps. HPRK used to be paired-share and is trying to get it re-instated. If they are successful, a few companies are likely to make bids for them. If a REIT is likely to buy Caesars properties, then I would expect HOT, PAH, and MT to be the most likely ones to bid on them. Entertainment seems highly cyclical to me, and after a long bull run in the economy, I expect to see it weaken in the next few years, and am not interested in building a large position in any cyclical industries. Hotels should get weaker also as the cycle weakens. Still, the length of this economic run has surprised me and except that profit margins are extremely rich, it's hard to forecast a change in direction for this economy. Richard