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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Intel Trader who wrote (1527)	12/14/1997 4:59:00 AM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

IT & All - No Big Kahunas here! I posted 3 concerns I had from a warped FA perspective. This past week's disaster was not tax selling IMHO but the earnings warnings. I really feel for the folks in EFII that woke up late Friday to find their stock was down 62%. I cannot even imagine trying to explain that one to my friends! The point is that I haven't seen this before and have a hard time trying to react to it. Little euphonisms like the "Asian Contagion" or whatever just don't seem to do it justice. There is some real pain in the street. I still belive INTC will be 50% higher in a year! Nonetheless -- specifically to Janko -- I withdraw my belief in DJIA 8800 by 4/98. It's clear to me that this problem is much more serious than I originally thought. I believe, again, the daytraders cannot be hurt. Go IT! Further, the long term investors will not be hurt -- as long term its just noise. Go Janko. God help the the whipsawed position trader, as it is going to get gritty. Let's hope Steve has got those candles burning! Someone on another SI thread indicated that 50% of the DJIA stocks are below their 150 day moving average. To you more experienced folks I ask what happens historically if that drops to the 200 day MA. At this point, I've got to say, I'm watching a roving disaster! The entire Tech sector is an absolute joke, the pain moving from one stock to another. It seems different to me! Is anyone else getting a similar reading? The secondary stocks appear to be in a shambles? I believe that based on my analysis there are only three dominant themes in this economy - Tech, Financials and Health Care. Tech has clearly tanked! Yet, each of us has got to ask if this is the great buying opportunity; the typical fourth quarter rally. As you all know, I love FA, am a newbie at TA, and my Market Timing has sucked. I see great support for INTC at 70, but if it breaks the next stop looks like 65. If that breaks, it becomes a secondary stock! Your call? I have a very difficult time reading Mr. Market when INTC drops 10% in a week. I look forward to receiving your food for thought on the issues presented. My DUDE vote is to go to cash and wait for Mr. Market's Jan earnings reports. Merry Christmas and to all a good night! Berney

To: Intel Trader who wrote (1527)	12/14/1997 1:15:00 PM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 11051

IT--- Many are blaming the currant prices on Asia when it is only partially to blame. EARNINGS-- everyone expected earnings to be double digit every qtr forever and at the first sign of a little burp the funds that were choked on these issues and could not burp let out a hell of a fart! The run was on,,, I agree with Berney "the long term...." but we may not live that long. I bailed INTC at 95 and the last little bit at 78,,, the writing is on the wall --- techs will not be at the old highs for a long time. ORCL reeally caught me asleep. I have more than doubled my previous 35 position at 23. The first bought will go before the end of the year at 30 (I hope). Have done the same with SUNW and AMAT. Now I am only up 30+% for the year, thanks to trading. The 68% looked a hell of alot better. CPQ may lag a bit, but will be just fine -- actually better after the split IMO. There are now a ton of issues on my buy list--- I will only trade quickly until I see bottoms being left as issues start up again. INTC has been mentioned in the mid- 60s,,,, even lower. Many have no re-entry point. The buy will come off the bottom or with long term positive news. INTC and many others will not rise high or quick without good numbers for 2 or more qtrs so there is no rush by most to re-enter with any possibility of further downside. Lesser companies will have a much tougher time than the likes of INTC. At this point I shall look to buy on dips and sell on spikes and/or news as that seems the only way to make a buck in the nrear term,,, I hope I am wrong! John