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Strategies & Market Trends : Zman Market Timing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kimston who wrote (3637)	6/23/2014 12:43:04 AM
From: zman69	1 Recommendation Recommended By POKERSAM Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15903

I definitely agree that sentiment is overheated here, and purely on that basis I would normally be looking for an intermediate-term pullback, but I also know that at times liquidity can trump sentiment for a long time, look at the 1998-2000 liquidity driven parabolic melt-up in the face of crazy euphoric sentiment. Eventually it was all given back as most rallies are the are built on dumb money chasing momentum, but being an early bear can mean death by 1000 cuts. That's why the key here is paying close attention to the CB's and the state of liquidity. If they start to drain the punchbowl or even start hawkish jawboning THEN it will be time to start aggressively gaming the short side IMHO, but not until. In the meantime skillful and nimble short-term timers may be able to scalp a short here and there but it will hardly be worth the effort. Much easier to just buy the dips and trail stops.