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Microcap & Penny Stocks : FRANKLIN TELECOM (FTEL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: elk who wrote (23147)12/14/1997 9:03:00 PM
From: SoliRA  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41046
 
Faith ain't got nothin' to do with sound investing. If I got faith, I got no reason to research, or read everything positive AND negative I can get my hands on.

When I did weather forecasting, I used the science, the equations, and a good bit of disciplined experience to make the call. Sometimes the call led to spending lots of money moving things around getting ready for what I told'em was coming. If I told them "I had faith" that my forecast was right, without the reasoning and measurements to back me up ... well, the people who'd listen to a forecast like that wouldn't be trusted with many resources.

So, checking over the facts and logic is always a good idea.

What may be happening to some people is they get nervous about their forecast, and want to change it because of the price. This is also a no no. It's called "chasing the observation". Weather guessers are trained to never change a forecast, once made, until you either have new data or someone points out an error in your reasoning.

I've been checking over some of my reasoning. What puts Franklin in the game is they seem to have a quality edge over other internet phone connections. I read once, many moons ago, that their approaches were protected by some patents, but I have no idea how strong those are. Enough players are in the game where I think competitors will make up this lead in months, not years. They're smack in the middle of what will be a huge market. Their price per port seems to be lower. And they're supporting FNET, a guaranteed market for the FTEL products if FNET succeeds.

What I worry about is that there's something I don't know. The 'Ol herding instinct works with weather forecasters, too, and many times is a bad thing. Sometimes, though, if everyone has a different story it means there's a chart I didn't look at close enough. In this area, I have a mixed bag. FTEL has been able to attract financial supporters. Presumably, these are smart people. There haven't been any announcements of huge sales, though - and I sort of expected them shortly after Oct 27.

I think I have to agree with RB's assessment, the current malaise. We will know by the end of 1st qtr whether there'll be rain or shine. If more people are like me, expect more buyers in January after the tax date roles buy.

Bob.