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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (11526)	12/14/1997 1:49:00 AM
From: Lazarus_Long	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

<< Dec issue of TA of Stocks & Commodities >> What is this you're referring to, Bill? A magazine?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (11526)	12/14/1997 1:59:00 AM
From: Don Pueblo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Agent Bill, I have not received a Dec issue of TAS&C, but got one in the mail yesterday that they call a 'Bonus Issue'. They covered a 'Cumulative Market Thrust' indicator. Is this what you are referring to? TLC

To: William H Huebl who wrote (11526)	12/14/1997 9:23:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi Bill; Well not to many people took Greenspam serious enough, when he said it looked like "excessive exuperance", that was back before the Dow was 7200..now I don't think he was just giving his personal opinion..he has ties to some of the real big money men in the world..this likely wasn't him just adding up numbers chanes are he was hearing things too. Even back then there were people worried about the Hong Gong flip over, and they knew Korea was in troble before the bottom fell out. That inner circle that has his ear tips him off at least a little after all they don't want to get on his bad side. Now I doubt Greeny was trying to do us some big favor by sending that warning..it was more to cover his rear. I don't agree with his political leanings, he's far to much right wing..one world Gov run by a few string pullers behind the sceans type guy for my taste..In fact I don't like him at all, but people do have to pay attention when he starts saying things to cover his rear. --------------------------- Any way now that your looking at the London market some, pull up some of their HI Flyers..look at the profiles, notice the P/Es , and balance sheets..you will see they run much lower P/Es and much lower Dept..now that divergence from our wildass high expectations is big, and theirs is more realistic. Even their high growth stocks , have to have a bottom line that shows some profit, but over here we will put up with negitive profit and huge dept for years and still run the price of the stock up. ----------------------------------------- It's all the momentum buyers..the mutuall funds trying to out do one another on the short term..yes we could be in serious troble..but my timeing of when the big wave will actully catch us is liley off..likly when you see Gold and oil start back up sharply and that could be some time. ------------------------- The fact that they both have fallen in price will give us some breathing room ( I think )..but again it's also a sign that there could be troble ahead. Profits in oil are falling.. But the big oil companies are still riding high..I told every one in early 96 ( when oil was $25 ) to buy oil stocks..been telling them to get out now for several months. However cheap oil helps us offset higher interest rates, IF the GOV, don't use the cheap oil as a way to increase taxes, they love to do that too...add a few hidden taxes then give a small token tax cut via the IRS. --------------------- Every one is living in a dream world of prosperity..but to much of it is on credit..the intrest on the credit is out running the real profits that investments ( companies can make )... look at how many companies make no profit..or negitive profit and low profit..how can that go on with them having to borrow at rates exceeding the the likly profit line. Retail and the end of the line ( box builders ) are showing profit..but when the profit goes out of the one who produce and is only left at the tail end that can't last too long. ---------------------------- This Asia Flu will be blamed for bringing us down, but it's more a result or side effect of unsound and stupid investments by big congolmerates, or chaebols..that we ourselves have supported. conglomerates have been buying up small companies at rediculaslly high prices..to cosolidate their position, paying with stock they know is not worth as much as it's going for..but after all the cosolidation is over then what we have a hand full of conglomerates in control and are back to the crap that set the world in a spin in 1929..that was no accident. -------------------------------- Is there time enough to avoid this ? Well maybe so but we would have to put in place some tough laws on the Wall Street hoods, and I doubt we have the resolve to do it. --------------------------- Well I'm on a rampage here so better stop, already I know I look like a radical pessimist..keep an eye on the major currencies getting an average of the value of each one, aginst the others and gold and oil. Particularlly oil..right now the dollar is king..when it stops being king I belive our stocks will follow it down..We need a last min rally to take out the 8200 before xmass or some negitive thinking and lack of confidence is going to spread, I'm hoping we will get that rally..a Bear market hurts every one..crime goes up and living standards go down even the winners in a Bear market wind up losers and have to lock them selves away in self made prisons, with guards to keep the rable out. Jim