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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Veteran98 who wrote (235489)	6/28/2014 6:51:40 PM
From: Sailing2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 314098

Vet, I'm no COT expert either but what concerns me is that the "commercials" are not just any shorts. They are supposed to be the "smart money". And we do know that unlike other commodities the Au/Ag markets are concentrated in the hands of just a few big players who presumably control these markets, e.g. JP Morgan. Historically when the commercials reduce their short positions to near zero the PMs rally strongly. When they build their shorts the PMs decline. Check the charts for yourself. Look at last June, a year ago vs last September; look at late December vs March. Compare the metal prices to the commercial short positions at the same times. I'm not saying you can't be right as you are one savvy trader. And I always own a gold fund and so always have some exposure to the PMs. And yes, falling open interest is often bullish. I'd love to be wrong and see the metals breakout here even with this dramatic build in commercial shorts. I'd love to see the shorts burnt to a crisp. But I'll have to see it to believe it. I'll look forward to hearing from other posters on the topic of the COTS. Good luck to you!

To: Veteran98 who wrote (235489)	6/30/2014 9:55:25 PM
From: m jensen	Respond to of 314098

What if the Cots report is nothing less or more than managing peoples expectations? (or setting them) As Sailing2 mentioned it has followed somewhat of a pattern which is a necessary placard to welcome people to the game. I mean if they Knock it down it will represent the report thereby giving it some legitimacy and have people sell into there ability to cover this increased short position, It's self fulfilling. From a couple months prior this video interview has some fairly profound implications. usawatchdog.com Interesting point at the 15min mark, might well be the best explanation of Abenomics an more. That's my thought of a report for the masses..