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Strategies & Market Trends : Fundamental Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (3710)	6/29/2014 10:22:55 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4719

Re: DIS Yes DIS is probably overvalued but the future growth possibilities with their ESPN franchise are huge. I unfortunately sold my DIS a few years ago and I regret it. Normally, I will only sell 50% of any one position especially a nifty fifty holding. I would go with peeling off 30% of DIS with the reservation to buy back those shares on any correction of 30% or more. I never liked SLW as it did not have the long run track record like AAUKY and/or Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX). Their business model is interesting and maybe provides better diversification than owning a small Jr. miner. I believe you first suggested Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) and I even put it on my buy list at/or below $31.00/share. FCX also has Oil exposure now so I like that part of the company too. It would be nice to have some NG exposure in the portfolio in any form from wells, midstream gathering and/or processing, transportation, storage or even export. APA does have NG production and an extensive CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) program. Maybe APA will eventually do what DVN did and begin to sell off some of their Foreign holdings to focus on the U.S. and Canadian properties. DVN did a "drop down" MLP and Midstream merger which helped advance their stock 40% higher after their announcement. I think APA is an excellent choice that is still undervalued with the potential to grow. VOD is still an interesting candidate stock since they sold their VZ holdings (back to VZ) and now plan to grow their EU cable and mobile business. The problem is their exposure to Europe which is still in a stagnate growth mode. I guess that is the time to start accumulating shares. In my own portfolio, I took the cash component of the VZ spin off and bought more VOD but my timing was bad as the stock has fallen 25% since my small purchase. I would say it is time to do at least a 30% purchase in VOD but it could be years before this one starts to grow back to historical rates if at all. TAL International Group, Inc. (TAL) is one I am looking to start with as an add (below $40.00/share) for my own portfolio. They pay a 6.5% dividend and have exposure to a growing world import/export market in the form of leasing shipping containers. Their Graham No. value is around $40.00/share so it is not over valued at the current price. I see an eventual recovery in Europe but it still may be 24-36 months before we begin a sustained up cycle. This is a good way to play the recovery and at the same time receive a very nice dividend. As far as gains in the portfolio, I typically will peel off at least 10%-20% of those with double digit gains and park the cash in a preferred and/or high yielding dividend payer and have that holding marked as a source of funds. I tend to be more aggressive in my buys on any sustained 10% correction and/or when the Graham No. value is 20% undervalued or more. AAUKY, VOD and APA all meet my Graham No. "undervalued" targets so for me, they are buys now. Each have their own story with APA maybe providing the best "theme" w/ their push into CNG/LNG worldwide. Finally, APA has LNG facilities in Australia and has plans to sell LNG to Japan a long run growth prospects. This alone provides a good catalyst for future growth. The Graham No. value for APA is $116.00/share. EKS