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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan Siegal who wrote (2348)	12/14/1997 11:15:00 PM
From: semi engineer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5482

Alan Not really. IC/Computers gets more powerful and cheaper each day but the equipments that produce these units are not getting any cheaper or seeing the quantum jump that you see from IC manufacturers. I tend to worry more about a competitor coming up with a better machine that the market disappearing due to a fantastic invention. The computers are getting faster and cheaper but the hardware manufacturing portion of the computers have not really changed at all last ten years. The still use a cheapest(thus, standard) package available and only use exotic packages(such as flipchip and Chip Scale Package) when there is no other option(such as cellular or performance application). The note computer has been around for a long time but why does most people still buy Desk Top. Why? Because the DeskTop is still cheaper and much more flexible than a Note book. Notebook will always have a place in computer market but it will not displace Desk Top. That is why I think overall market for wirebonders will grow as IC unit volume grows. The variable cost for flipchip and microBGA is much higher than standard stamped metal frame based package. Unless many corporations and home users decide to go portable next five years, I just do not see flipchip displacing wirebond. MicroBGA is still four times more expensive than standard packages and it will continue to be four times more expensive. Last ten years, we went through five generation of Microprocessor but the development at fab equipment has been minimal. IMHO, only significant development in fab is wide use of CMP for multiple metal layers. Otherwise, all developments were incremental. It took five years for PBGA market to develop. I expect it will take another five(5) years for flipchip and microBGA to be at where PBGA is at today. That does not mean it will not grow. It just means that it will grow in a very selective market(cellular, mobile, etc). Let's just hope Korean president election stabilize Korean Won soon and it will let Korean companies get the delivery of bonders. I need a pop by Jan option expiration date. Let just hope this gloom and doom subsides by that time.